"If we were to challenge NATO, well, then we have a completely different game plan. Then we will have to recalculate everything. Then this report is wrong," says Annika Winsth, Nordea's chief economist, when TT spoke to her about the bank's new economic forecast.
"We are outside the rules-based world order we are used to, and that has increased stress," she adds.
Nordea expects GDP to rise to 3 percent in Sweden this year, up from an estimated 1.9 percent last year. Swedbank's and Handelsbanken's forecasts have been raised to 2.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively.
"A big cloud of worry"
The concern about where the Greenland crisis is heading is also evident at Handelsbanken and Swedbank.
"A huge cloud of worry," writes Handelsbanken in its new economic report.
"Further escalation could affect global security and have consequences for trade and investment flows," warns Swedbank's Chief Economist Mattias Persson.
Nordea's Winsth expects US President Donald Trump to impose new 10 percent tariffs on eight European NATO countries, including Sweden, in February to force through a US takeover of Danish Greenland. But she hopes that EU countries will not allow themselves to be provoked into a trade war that cannot be won.
"Europe is not China," she says about the EU's ability to deter Trump.
The focus should instead be on diplomacy, dialogue and self-examination - a strategy that boosted exports for Sweden and increased world trade despite the customs chaos in 2025, according to Winsth.
"Europe's strategy should be to emphasize international law firmly, but then try to influence what it can influence. That is the internal market and cooperation agreements with other countries," says Winsth.
"He yawns quite loudly"
She welcomes the fact that the political signals from the EU have so far been relatively cautious. And she notes that the market reaction has also been quite cautious.
"There is no stress in the system," she says.
In her main scenario, Winsth, like many analysts, starts with "Taco", a figure of speech that many in the financial market began using last year, which stands for "Trump always chickens out".
"He yawns quite loudly. Then he backs off and what he said doesn't quite happen. This means that the financial market is still taking a lot of risk, even though there are extreme statements coming."
