For the first time in decades, the countries with the world's largest nuclear arsenals are free to do whatever they want.
Amid Cold War fear of global catastrophe, the START Treaty, the first joint disarmament agreement, was concluded in 1991. Since then, the agreements have succeeded each other like a relay race. But when the current so-called New START agreement expires, there will be no replacement.
"If it expires, it expires," US President Donald Trump told The New York Times in early January.
We will make a better deal, the president added, emphasizing that a new agreement should include China with its rapidly growing arsenal.
Inspected weapons stockpiles
Until now, countries have been limited to a maximum of 1,550 strategically deployed warheads, the most powerful nuclear weapons. Compared with the limit in 2002, this is a 30 percent reduction. The countries were also allowed to inspect each other's weapons stockpiles. However, Russia halted this in 2023 after relations with then-US President Joe Biden deteriorated over Russia's offensive war in Ukraine.
The current New START agreement was signed in 2010 by then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his American counterpart Barack Obama. Obama is now warning of the consequences of not having an agreement.
“It would pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy, and could trigger another arms race that would make the world less safe,” he writes on the X platform.
“Low-hanging fruit”
New START was extended in 2021 in an agreement between Biden and President Vladimir Putin. In September of last year, Putin proposed an informal one-year extension. Trump responded with the words "a good idea" - but since then the president has been tight-lipped.
According to Jon Wolfsthal, director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists, it would be just a phone call away between the presidents.
This is low-hanging fruit that the Trump administration should have picked months ago, he told the AFP news agency.
Wolfsthal is one of several experts involved with the so-called Doomsday Clock. It was recently moved forward four seconds and is now 86 seconds from midnight, the symbol of the end of the world. The move is due in part to the expiration of New START.
Tove Christensen/TT
Facts: New START Agreement
TT
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) was signed between the United States and Russia in 2010. It stipulates that:
1,550 nuclear warheads may be present on each side – about 30 percent fewer than in the Moscow Treaty from 2002 and 74 percent fewer than in the START Treaty from 1991.
The number of deployed or non-deployed nuclear launchers on land or aboard submarines, together with the number of nuclear-armed heavy bombers, may not exceed 800. A maximum of 700 of them may be deployed.
The agreement was due to expire on February 5, 2021, but was extended for five years just days before the end date.
Source: UI, SIPRI and others
