Scenario 1: Sweden beats Japan and finishes second in the group:
Then Brazil would most likely await in the round of 32. The runner-up in Sweden's group will face the winner of Group C, where Brazil and Morocco are currently first and second. Brazil will face Scotland in their final group game, while Morocco will face Haiti, who have already been eliminated. If Brazil and Morocco finish on the same points, they will be separated by goal difference first and goals scored second. Right now, Brazil has a goal difference two goals better than Morocco.
495 combinations
Scenario 2: Sweden loses points to Japan and finishes third in the group:
Then it's trickier. Sweden first needs to be among the eight best third-placed teams across the twelve groups to secure a place in the round of 32.
Which third-placed teams face which runners-up and group winners, however, is advanced mathematics. According to FIFA, there are 495 possible combinations of outcomes based on which group threes advance.
A not entirely unthinkable scenario is that Sweden, as a third-placed team, faces the winner of Group I, where Norway leads on goal difference ahead of France after one round.
Norway next faces Senegal and France takes on Iraq before Norway and France meet in the final group match.
Group winner?
There is also a third scenario, which means that Sweden misses the playoffs. Should Sweden lose points against Japan, they risk missing the playoffs if they are among the four worst third-placed teams. In the event of a loss, it may be important for Sweden to keep the goal difference down, as it could come down to goal difference to determine the eight best third-placed teams.
Technically there is also a fourth scenario, in which Sweden wins its group after defeating Japan while the Netherlands fail to win against Tunisia.
In such cases, it could still be Morocco or Brazil in a round of 16 tie when the winner of Sweden's group faces the runner-up in Group C. Unless Scotland gets past the teams currently directly qualified.
