When Mykhailo Fedorov was forced out of office as defence minister this week, perhaps the largest street protests since the start of the war erupted in Ukraine. The young Fedorov has received much of the credit for the country's recent war successes, and many could not understand why he would be replaced after such a short time.
He had taken the post in January, replacing Denys Shmyhal, who was also allowed to serve as defence minister for only six months.
According to Ryhor Nizhnikau, senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) in Helsinki, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gets nervous as soon as someone else becomes very popular - no matter how loyal that person is.
Zelenskyy is becoming politically jealous, so to speak, says Nizhnikau.
Then he wants to eliminate every potential challenger, and I emphasise potential, because Fedorov has been a solid Zelenskyy loyalist.
“Then he let it go”
TT: So these reshuffles are likely to continue, no matter how good someone is at their job?
Yes, we can definitely say that this is the most likely outcome.
But Nizhnikau sees a dangerous trend if the president cares less and less about the reactions each time.
Remember that last year, in the NABU mess, when the public protested, he let it go and moved on.
The researcher is referring to the presidential administration's attempt in the summer of 2025 to limit the independence of the anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAPO. After strong protests, Zelenskyy backed down.
Now he is standing on his own, says Nizhnikau.
Fedorov has thus not been given back his position as defence minister - even though the public demonstrations seem larger this time.
New warfare
Admittedly, the president reacted by firing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyj after a few days, whose rivalry with Fedorov triggered the latest power struggle.
The older Syrskyj was replaced by 43-year-old Mykhailo Drapatyj, who, according to analysts, is more in line with the new, less hierarchical warfare that Fedorov stood for - hypermodern drone units that have great freedom to make their own decisions in the field.
Fedorov may also remain to some extent, in some form of relatively high-ranking role in the fight against Russia's war of aggression. But the demands of the street have been for full redress. "Reinstatement" has been a common slogan, meaning that Fedorov should be given his ministerial post back.
Perhaps for the first time in his political career, Zelenskyy is ignoring the most important demand the public, society, places on his rule.
If the crisis ends like that, then it's a bad, bad sign.
“Thinking in electoral terms”
Nizhnikau thus assesses that Zelenskyy sees all other incumbents as contenders in the next election, even though such a thing is barely on the map. As long as Ukraine is at war, the constitution does not allow elections to be held.
It shouldn't be like that, but he's thinking in electoral terms in a country where there may not be an election for ten years.
The turbulence is being closely watched by the outside world, as much of the war's development is determined by who decides what in Ukraine's defence. But the international reactions are low-key. Ryhor Nizhnikau describes it as the EU having invested so much in Zelenskyy as a war leader that European powers are mostly watching and hoping for the best in this case. Russia is cozying up - but has already invested everything it can in attempts to destabilise Ukraine.
Zelenskyy will not change. Russia will continue as before. Europe will also continue on its path, says Nizhnikau.
What remains is the Ukrainian people.
The Ukrainian people will decide how this war ends. Or how this war continues.
Born in 1978 and raised in Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine, with Russian as his native language.
Trained as a lawyer, but chose a career as a comedian and actor. Became famous through the TV series "Servant of the People", where he portrays a history teacher who is unexpectedly elected President of Ukraine.
He then ran for president in 2019 and defeated incumbent President Petro Poroshenko. Zelenskyy was open about his limited political knowledge, but said he was friendly towards NATO and the EU, and focused on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine through diplomatic means.
He is married to Olena Zelenska. The couple met in high school, married in 2003, and have two children, born in 2004 and 2013.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's mandate expired in the spring of 2024 after five years in office. The reason a new presidential election has not been held is because martial law is in effect in Ukraine.
Ukraine's constitution stipulates that presidential elections are held on the last Sunday in October during a sitting president's fifth and final year in office. But it also states that the president retains his powers until a newly elected president is able to take over. And under martial law, elections are not allowed.
Politicians who were involved in drafting the legal text, which dates back to 1996, have said that the latter wording was added as a bluff - precisely because they had concerns about a future Russian invasion.
