El Niño is a naturally recurring phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that has a major impact on weather across much of the world. A new analysis by the WMO says the phenomenon will intensify and have a major impact on rainfall and temperatures, with increased risks of flooding in some places, but also drought and extreme heat in others.
The risk that El Niño will persist until at least February next year is essentially 100 percent, although the peak is expected to be reached around the turn of the year.
Already disturbances
The name of the phenomenon - the baby boy - refers to the birth of the baby Jesus, at Christmas time, when El Niño is usually at its strongest. But despite the cute name, El Niño can have a massive impact on societies and economies around the world, warns WMO Director Celeste Saulo in a press release:
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from drought and flooding, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” she says.
El Niño is about winds over the Pacific Ocean stopping or turning east, which causes warm surface water to spread towards the western part of South America.
Worse with climate change
The complex interaction with the atmosphere typically leads to drier weather over the Amazon, a warmer Caribbean and northwestern North America, while the southern United States becomes colder and wetter. Hot and dry conditions are common in Southeast Asia, while large parts of Australia also become dry and hot.
Scientists have had difficulty seeing links to climate change because the phenomenon itself varies, but a recent study published in Science suggests that El Niño is intensifying in a warmer world, and that the variability is already 37 percent greater than in a pre-industrial world.
