Temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are rising, approaching El Niño conditions, a naturally recurring phenomenon that affects local weather. It is likely to develop into a strong variant - a so-called super El Niño.
"It will be an extremely warm year as a result of human-caused climate change, regardless of how strong El Niño becomes," said Friederike Otto at Imperial College London, who leads the World Weather Attribution research network, at a press conference.
Fire records already broken
Even before a possible El Niño, the year has featured several extreme weather events, such as record heat waves in Australia and the United States.
"This year, the global fire season has started very early. We have 50 percent more burned area than average and 20 percent more than the previous record," said Theodore Keeping, a researcher at Imperial College London.
In 16 countries, mainly in West Africa, there have been more fires than ever before at this time of year since measurements began in 2012. This is partly because earlier rains boosted vegetation, which then dried out when the weather changed.
"There have also been massive fires in India, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and northeastern China," said Keeping.
The fact that El Niño occurs on an already record-warm planet increases the risks, according to Otto.
"If there is a strong El Niño later this year, there is a serious risk that climate change will result in unprecedented extreme weather."
She mentions drought in the Amazon like in 2023–2024, while desert countries like the United Arab Emirates and Oman could be hit by heavy rains.
Natural phenomenon
El Niño is not having a direct impact on Europe, but in Australia, northwestern North America and the Amazon, hot and dry conditions could lead to forest fires later this year, Keeping warns.
"In all three of these regions, the risks have increased as a result of climate change. I have spoken to many who work on managing fire risk in the regions, and they are all preparing for a serious fire year with likely extremely damaging fires."
At the same time, Friederike Otto emphasizes that El Niño is not the problem.
"El Niño is not a reason to freak out. It is a natural phenomenon that comes and goes. Climate change, on the other hand, is something that will get worse and worse as long as we don't stop burning fossil fuels."
