France has already gotten used to verdicts against former politicians such as ex-presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac and former Prime Minister François Fillon.
Now, it is instead a highly current politician who is affected when National Rally's Marine Le Pen is convicted of embezzlement with EU funds.
This is big. This will have consequences, states Marie Demker, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
Betting on Bardella?
Le Pen's supporters have quickly accused the court of having acted politically. Demker still expects that many will trust that the court has acted correctly.
I believe that the French courts in such matters have legitimacy and that it is not perceived as politically controlled. The fact that they have convicted both Sarkozy and Chirac means that there is a certain legitimacy, says Demker.
What the consequences will be is not easy to predict. First and foremost, the verdict is a hard blow to the National Rally party, which needs to consider whether to continue to back Le Pen or already start promoting 29-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella ahead of the presidential election in 2027.
Support for him is not a given.
Bardella is charismatic and has the gift of speech, but he does not quite have the same authority within the party. Will he be able to hold the troops together behind him? I'm not sure about that, says Demker.
Never President?
Another question is how National Rally will act in parliament, where they have so far chosen not to bring down the minority government led by liberal François Bayrou.
There can certainly not be any new election until at least after the summer.
But it will not just continue with "business as usual". Something will happen within the next few weeks, believes Demker.
And for Le Pen personally, the verdict likely means that she will never become president of France.
I would guess no. It was probably 2027 when she would have had the chance. This will still be a setback, regardless of appeals, says Marie Demker.
