Our majority will grow. And New York will make sure it happens.
House Speaker Mike Johnson exuded confidence as he took the stage at Donald Trump's highly publicized campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on Sunday.
In front of cheering supporters holding "Trump will fix it" signs, Johnson pledged wholehearted support for the presidential candidate, with whom he regularly speaks on the phone.
Tough in Montana
Judging by the pre-election talk, it's not certain that Johnson will keep his job. Since all 435 members of the House are elected every other year, the Democrats have relatively good opportunities to take the five seats needed for a shift in power. A total of 34 electoral districts are considered "swing districts", meaning they could change majority.
Both Johnson and New York Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, who would take over as Speaker if his party won a majority in the House, are campaigning intensively in these districts.
In the Senate, the situation is different. The Democrats currently hold the smallest possible majority, with 51 of the 100 seats.
Senators have longer terms, six years, and these are staggered so that about one-third of the members are elected every other year. This year, 33 senators are up for election (in addition to two by-elections). 23 of them are Democrats, and many of them come from states where Trump's popularity has grown and Democratic politicians are being questioned.
For the Republicans, it's enough to win one extra seat, provided the party also takes the White House (where the Vice President has the casting vote), otherwise two seats. This could happen in conservative Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester is campaigning at a disadvantage, or in West Virginia, where independent Senator Joe Manchin, who has supported the Democrats, is retiring. Democrat Sherrod Brown from Ohio is also expected to have a tough time holding onto his Senate seat.
Free and fair?
The election could end with both chambers of Congress changing majority – the Senate becoming Republican and the House becoming Democratic. Such a double shift has not occurred in the USA in 230 years, according to CNN.
The power distribution in the Capitol is crucial for how successful the next president will be, since bills and appointments must be approved by the members there.
Moreover, it is Congress that formally approves the result of the presidential election on January 6. It was when this was about to happen in 2021 that the Capitol was stormed by angry Trump supporters. Speaker Mike Johnson recently said that he intends to approve the result if it is "a free and fair and legal election". In some circles, this is interpreted as him opening up the possibility of claiming electoral fraud if the result does not favor his party.
Tina Magnergård Bjers/TT
Facts: The US Congress
TTTT
Congress is the federal legislative assembly in the USA, based in the Capitol in Washington DC. Its work runs in two-year periods, and the current 118th Congress session started on January 3, 2023. The 119th session will be elected on November 5.
Congress consists of the Senate with 100 members, two from each state, and the House of Representatives with 435 seats, distributed in relation to the states' population.
In the Republican-led House of Representatives, there are currently 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. Three seats are vacant. The even balance and divisions within each party make it difficult to pass laws and budget proposals.
In the Senate, the Democrats have 47 seats and the support of four independent members, giving the party a majority. The Republicans have 49 members.
Sources: The US Congress, House Press Gallery
