The threshold of 1.5 degrees of warming will be crossed within ten years, the new report from Unep confirms. In the least severe scenario, warming could be limited to 1.8 degrees.
"It's a reality check. We have to live with this warmer world, but there is still a lot we can do to limit warming," Richard Betts of the University of Exeter and one of the researchers behind the report told AFP.
In recent years, the UN has changed its tone about the goal. In the spring of 2025, it was still hopeful, while in the run-up to the climate summit towards the end of the year, it changed tack and described it as essentially impossible.
"I think it has been obvious to us researchers for quite some time that the target will not be achieved. But it is good to have this clarity - to ensure that we succeed in reversing this emissions trend internationally," says Anna Rutgersson, professor of meteorology at Uppsala University.
Want to turn around quickly
In 2015, the world's countries came together in the so-called Paris Agreement, with the goal of not allowing the Earth's average temperature to increase by more than 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.
"I wasn't entirely enthusiastic when it was set. I probably thought even then that it would be difficult to reach," says Rutgersson.
Crossing the line is neither safe nor acceptable, the researchers emphasize. Expect melting glaciers, rising sea levels, extreme heat, fires and collapsed ecosystems. The world now needs to act quickly to protect vulnerable groups and environments.
The water problem is also something that must be addressed, with increased drought in some areas and increased risk of flooding in others, says Rutgersson.
New goals
At the same time, it is important that the failure to achieve the target does not mean that hopelessness and apathy spread. The goal should be to reverse the trend as soon as possible, according to Unep. Every tenth of a degree is of great importance. First and foremost, emissions should be reduced, including the powerful short-lived greenhouse gases such as methane.
After that, the temperature must be brought back down to 1.5 degrees, for example through technical carbon capture and afforestation. But this is only possible if warming stays well below 2.0 degrees.
"Let's be very clear: 1.5 degrees is still the goal. But now we need to approach it in a different way: from above," UNEP chief Inger Andersen told AFP.
The UN's environmental agency, Unep, outlines how the global community should act, dividing it into three phases.
1. The immediate phase. Limit warming rapidly through deep emissions reductions. Take urgent action to protect the most vulnerable people and environments.
2. The management phase. Advanced comprehensive decarbonization (e.g., phasing out fossil fuels) to reach at least net zero emissions. Build resilience while managing the severe impacts and risks.
3. The long-term resilience phase. Once temperatures have stabilized, significant negative emissions must be delivered, for example through carbon capture, bioenergy with carbon storage, and afforestation. Continue to build resilience and sustainability.
The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees, preferably 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial times.
The goal is set to mitigate the most devastating effects of climate change, which gets worse for every tenth of a degree the earth warms.
At 1.5 degrees Celsius, more intense storms and heat waves and an increased risk of mass coral die-offs await. At 2 degrees Celsius, a larger proportion of the population is exposed to deadly extreme weather, and the likelihood of irreversible climate tipping points increases.
More and more people are now convinced that the 1.5 degree target is impossible and many scientists believe that the planet is on its way to 2.5 degrees of warming.
