Russia's invasion forces are slowly pushing back Ukrainian defenses in intense frontline fighting.
Ukraine is holding out, but is finding it increasingly difficult to fill the ranks. Many frontline soldiers have been called up for several years, without rotation, as there is a shortage of replacements. The mobilization is in effect until further notice - until the war is over.
At this point, there are two million Ukrainians who are avoiding conscription and are wanted by the authorities, said the new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov when he was sworn into parliament on Wednesday. 200,000 are said to have evaded ongoing service.
“Stickers in the eyes”
Many potential recruits are abroad. Over a million adult Ukrainian men have been granted protection and residence in the EU since the outbreak of the war in February 2022.
For many, it clearly stands out that Ukraine has these problems, says Jakob Hedenskog, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs.
When there is such strong support and the resilience has been beyond expectations, it stands out that many stay away and seem to live quite well abroad while other compatriots may suffer disproportionately.
When Ukraine mobilized its defense, all men between the ages of 18 and 60 were banned from leaving the country. Many have nevertheless managed to escape.
Just over 16,000 in Sweden
Tens of thousands of men have made their way through the Carpathian mountain range into the EU, where all Ukrainians are granted protection under the so-called mass exodus directive. Tens of thousands more have been stopped at the border.
Just over 49,500 fleeing Ukrainians are in Sweden, according to figures from the beginning of the year. A third of them, just over 16,000, are men of legal age.
Germany - the country in the EU that has received the most Ukrainians and provided the most support for Ukraine's defense - fears that a visible reluctance among many Ukrainians could affect Europeans' willingness to help Ukraine.
They are needed there, said Chancellor Friedrich Merz in November.
More Russians are being taken in
It is very difficult for Ukraine to remedy this problem, according to Jakob Hedenskog. On the one hand, he sees it as proof that Ukraine is a more developed and free country than Russia. On the other hand, he sees that Russia is mobilizing more and more people in relation to Ukraine while Ukrainian soldiers need to rest.
But the risk is that soldiers who have served for three or four years will leave behind huge gaps in the defense. It is a dilemma for which no solution has yet been found, says the UI analyst.
When Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a state of emergency and martial law were declared in Ukraine. All men between the ages of 18 and 65 were banned from leaving the country, and later that year, more than 700,000 people were serving in the Ukrainian military. During the war years, Ukraine has had increasing difficulty recruiting new people to fill the ranks and rotate with those drafted.
In 2024, the recruitment age was lowered from 27 to 25. Pay was increased and penalties for staying away were tightened.
In 2025, Russian forces were reported to outnumber Ukrainian forces many times over at the most hotly contested front sections.
Last year, Ukraine needed to mobilize an additional 300,000 men, but only received around 200,000. Russia recruited around 30,000 men a month, while Ukraine recruited between 17,000 and 24,000, according to a report from the Swedish Institute for Foreign Policy.
