Trump faces costly military dilemma to reopen Strait of Hormuz

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Trump faces costly military dilemma to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Photo: Razieh Poudat /AP/TT

Despite airstrikes, naval blockades and threats to destroy an "entire civilization", US President Donald Trump has failed to force the Iranians to open the strategically important strait.

"The Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open, with or without Iran," he wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday.

But restoring shipping traffic in the strait - one of the world's most important shipping lanes for oil - has proven more difficult than Trump probably expected.

Iran has been preparing for this type of asymmetric conflict for decades, Jason H Campbell, senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, told the AP news agency.

Ground troops

According to analysts, a much larger military effort with more warships in the strait and ground troops in Iran is required to secure the passage.

Iran's weapons production is spread across multiple facilities to reduce the risk of foreign attacks. The country's military units are often allowed to operate without waiting for orders from Tehran and are deployed in multiple locations, making airstrikes less effective.

"It is very difficult to imagine any scenario where the Strait of Hormuz could be satisfactorily secured without ground forces," Campbell says.

But such an effort would require tens of thousands of American soldiers for several months and entail "very high costs," according to Campbell.

American losses

Another way to ease traffic in Hormuz is for US warships to escort oil tankers, which has already happened. But the effort would need to be escalated and would require a very large number of warships.

A very large proportion of the US Navy would be dedicated to this indefinitely, former military analyst Michael Eisenstadt at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank told the AP.

In addition, several American soldiers would probably lose their lives, which is not popular in the United States where people are already negatively disposed towards the war, partly due to increased gasoline prices.

"If we are going to do what is necessary to make this work, which means ground troops to clear launch sites for missiles and drones, the losses of American soldiers could increase. If you are going to do an escort operation in addition, the losses could increase even more," he says.

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By TT News AgencyEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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