The independent analyst Atarodi sees clearly how the political map is being redrawn at a rapid pace. A direct consequence of the regime in Damascus falling is that Iran has lost a Shia Muslim sphere of influence that it has nurtured, economically and militarily, for a long time.
When President Bashar al-Assad disappears in this way, a link that Iran has tried to create for 40 years is broken, he says.
The Iranian influence has been decisive in Syria and Lebanon through the militant Hezbollah movement.
The link has been extremely weakened in Lebanon and now completely severed in Syria – and thereby disappears the strategic depth that Iran had in the region. It is a major defeat.
Russian fiasco
But the consequences in Syria can also have global implications:
Russia is the absolute biggest loser on a regional and global level, says Atarodi with a background in, among other things, the government offices and the Defense University's research institute.
Russia has invested enormous political and military capital in Syria. Moscow wanted to show the entire region that the country had a political will to change things in the Middle East.
The story was very powerful and had an impact throughout the Arab world – and then suddenly Russia is sitting there in the mess, excuse the expression, he says.
Thus, the political playing field is opening up for two actors:
Turkey is absolutely the biggest winner, perhaps alongside Israel, which got this as an unexpected letter in the mail, says Atarodi in a telephone interview hours after the Damascus regime fell.
Turkish approval
The Islamist extremist movement HTS would not have been able to achieve its military successes without indirect approval from Turkey – which wants to increase its influence in Syria.
Directly or indirectly, Turkey has had its eyes on an expansion and has always looked towards, for example, northern Syria, he says, reminding of the historical defeats that the country suffered after World War I, when it lost large areas of land – something that sits deeply in the Turkish people's soul.
For Israel's government, the development in Syria has been outside the country's direct control. Previously, Israel has been worried that Islamist extremist groups would become strong in neighboring countries.
This has changed partially after Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, according to Atarodi:
Israel sees advantages in what is happening – because it means that Iran is being diminished on the political scene.
