The year started well for the global economy.
"We had quite optimistic GDP forecasts for Sweden, but also globally. There was talk of tax cuts and deregulation, general growth and a business-friendly climate," says Jens Magnusson, chief economist at SEB.
But then it happened. On April 2, Trump announced tariffs of up to 50 percent on goods imported into the United States.
In four days, the largest US stock market index, the S&P, fell by 12 percent, erasing approximately $5.8 trillion in market capitalization.
At that time, many people downgraded the forecasts.
Resilient economy
But Trump proved willing to negotiate. As the year draws to a close, tariffs are down to around ten percent. The S&P 500 index has not only bounced back from the fall - it has risen sharply, hitting a record high.
The economy and especially inflation still managed the tariffs a little better than one might have expected, says Jens Magnusson.
Are we still facing the consequences of the tariffs?
We're not really worried, but the answer is that there's probably a little left, but not so messy that it has to become a huge inflation problem again.
It seems that those costs were basically shared, but that the largest part was borne by American importers. Not everything ended up on the end consumer and then inflation did not become so high.
“Tech has clouded the effects”
Marcus Svedberg, chief economist at the Folksam Group, believes that the economy in 2025 will be boosted by the rush of tech companies.
It is clear that tech and AI have been what has driven the economy and stock market this year. Trump's term in office has coincided with the investment boom around AI and enormous sums have been invested.
And when you consider that Nvidia's market capitalization alone is larger than the world's third-largest national economy, I think tech has clouded the negative effects of the tariffs.
Do you think the effects of the tariffs will be felt more broadly next year?
Yes, I think so. We are only now seeing at the end of the year that inflation is starting to tick up in the US on certain goods at the same time as the labor market is slowing. It should be the other way around.
He believes that tariffs may be adjusted downwards if inflation takes off too much.
It's a completely self-imposed policy that the administration is pursuing. If inflationary pressure gets a little too high, then they'll ease the tariffs.
I don't think we're facing too difficult a scenario next year.
