The unexpectedly high inflation figure for June from the Statistical Central Bureau (SCB) on Monday – a CPIF inflation of 2.9 percent – has driven the development.
The market expects that the interest rate cut that many previously expected already in August – by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75 percent – will be delayed until the autumn, at the latest in December this year.
After that, according to the pricing on the market, there is a very small probability of further interest rate cuts from the Swedish Central Bank, something that was a main scenario among the market's players just two weeks ago.
The Swedish Central Bank itself has – in connection with the interest rate meeting at the end of June – indicated that there may be an interest rate cut later this year, with a probability of around 50 percent.
The benchmark interest rate affects particularly short-term interest rates in the Swedish economy, such as variable mortgage rates.
If the mortgage rate on a mortgage loan were to be cut by 0.25 percentage points, it would reduce the cost of the loan by 7,500 kronor per year, if one disregards the effects of the interest deduction.
