"The risk is now increasing," writes Per Altenberg in an email interview with TT when the issue of a full-scale trade war is raised.
"This is due both to the issue being linked to territorial sovereignty and to the fact that trust is being undermined when the US threatens new tariffs despite the administration recently agreeing to a settlement with the EU," he adds.
The customs agreement may now become obsolete, according to Altenberg.
“It is too early to say whether it will be torn up due to the US threat of new tariffs linked to Greenland. In the long run, however, it will be difficult to make new agreements with a counterparty that does not respect agreements it has previously entered into. Ultimately, trade agreements are a matter of trust,” he writes.
“Trade bazooka” an alternative
Since last fall, the EU has paused EU tariffs on US goods worth approximately SEK 1,000 billion until February 6. These tariffs could now become part of the EU's response if the Greenland tariffs are introduced by the Trump administration.
Trump's territorial threat to Greenland, a self-governing part of Denmark, a NATO country, has also prompted discussions about how the EU should respond, with French President Emmanuel Macron highlighting the option commonly referred to as the EU's "trade bazooka." It is a regulation that, in addition to regular retaliatory tariffs, would, for example, allow restrictions on US companies participating in public procurement and create obstacles to trade in services and direct investment in the EU.
US tariffs on EU goods already average 19 percent, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This compares to 2.5 percent in early 2025, before Donald Trump took office as US president for the second time.
Exports down 16 percent
The effect is clear. Swedish exports to the US have plummeted by 16 percent during the period April-November 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the Swedish Board of Trade. The tariffs are expected to reduce Swedish exports to the US by 4 percent and Swedish imports from the US by 11 percent in four years, according to the authority's analysis.
According to Trump, Greenland tariffs – against eight European NATO countries including Sweden – will be 10 percent from February and 25 percent from June. There are no calculations yet at the Swedish Chamber of Commerce on how they – and the EU's possible response – would affect Swedish trade.
