On Thursday, July 30, Swedes who have moved abroad can start voting in the Swedish elections.
Several parties say they have focused this year on attracting voters who have previously had low turnout. For example, the SD has targeted Swedes on the Spanish Costa del Sol, and the M and MP have campaigned in London.
There are around 220,000 Swedes living abroad and the group is said to be able to decide elections. But this is mainly because most overseas votes are only counted after election night - not because the voting group itself is so large that it is usually decisive.
“Mixed group”
According to Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, Swedes living abroad are a relatively small group, with only around 30 percent voter turnout.
"It's a very diverse and special group. It's everything from tax dodgers to students," he says.
He estimates that there will be around 70,000-80,000 votes in this year's election.
There are just as many people named Kerstin, and that corresponds to approximately the same number of votes coming in from Jämtland County.
The reason why attention is still being directed towards Swedes abroad is primarily that their votes count last, he says.
They are included in the mandate ping-pong that may occur after the election. But then they will be included in a very large pile of votes that also includes late-arriving early votes from Sweden.
There is no current data on how Swedes living abroad vote because their votes are not reported separately. The most recent survey, from 2014, showed that they vote more to the right than the average voter. But Ekengren Oscarsson believes that it is not a particularly large majority.
Families with children more important
The most recent election, in 2022, was the third most even election in Sweden's democratic history, according to the professor. The Tidö parties ultimately won by around 46,000 votes over the red-greens.
In such a very, very even situation, one could point out that it was the votes from abroad that tipped the scales. But it's not usually that even.
He says that it is probably much more important how groups such as families with children or first-time voters vote.
There are over 400,000 first-time voters. That is many times more than the votes we expect from abroad.
Approximately 220,000 Swedes living abroad will be able to vote in this year's parliamentary elections.
Swedes abroad are Swedish citizens who have at some point been registered in Sweden and who have emigrated.
They can either vote from abroad or vote early if they are visiting Sweden.
From abroad, Swedes living abroad can either vote by mail or vote early at an embassy or consulate.
Postal votes from abroad can begin being submitted on Thursday, July 30.
Early voting abroad will start on August 20th at the earliest.
Swedes living abroad must register on the electoral roll every ten years to remain on it.
Source: Election Authority
