On Monday, Statistics Sweden will release new inflation figures. Analysts forecast that inflation will land around 1 percent, according to the Swedish Central Bank's CPIF measure, in August.
It is higher than in July but still low.
"We have fiscal policy measures (food VAT, petrol tax) that temporarily push down inflation. It is significantly higher if you exclude politics," says Persson.
More expensive goods
And above all, it is on the rise. According to Nordea's forecast, food prices rose slightly in August, while clothing and footwear are estimated to have increased significantly compared with July, according to seasonal patterns. Electricity and fuel prices are also rising.
At the same time, the Swedish economy has come under greater pressure. Together, this means that inflation will probably increase significantly in the future.
Mattias Persson sees underlying inflation of 2.6-2.7 percent by late winter/spring next year, clearly higher than the Swedish Central Bank's target of 2.0 percent.
Therefore, virtually all forecasters have now projected both one and two interest rate increases from the Swedish Central Bank, the first a little later this autumn.
"Not impossible"
If Monday's inflation ends up higher than everyone expects, could there be an interest rate hike as early as September?
"Then it's going to be a real surprise. Then it's going to require a lot more," says Mattias Persson.
Danske Bank economists previously predicted a rate hike in September. Now it is predicted to come in November instead.
This is because we do not believe that inflation will surprise enough on Monday to justify such a large turnaround as it would be for the Swedish Central Bank to raise at that meeting, given their communication at the August meeting, says Danske Bank's chief economist Susanne Spector.
But it's not impossible. If there are big surprises, they could happen, she continues.
