SwedenLivingWorld world_2_fill WorldBusiness BusinessSports sports-soccer SportsEntertainmentEntertain

SMHI: Then we issue a warning

Rain or sunshine? It's not always the case that the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute's (SMHI) weather forecasts are entirely accurate. But it's not the weather itself that's the focus when a yellow warning is issued. It's actually the consequences we're warning about, says Therese Fougman, meteorologist at SMHI.

» Updated: 05 October 2024

» Published: 11 July 2024

SMHI: Then we issue a warning
Photo: Magnus Lejhall/TT

Rain or sunshine?

It's not always the case that SMHI's weather forecasts are entirely accurate. But it's not the weather itself that's in focus when a yellow warning is issued.

It's actually the consequences we're warning about, says Therese Fougman, meteorologist at SMHI.

On Wednesday, SMHI issued a yellow warning for rain and thunderstorms over southern Sweden. Before a warning is issued, the authority looks at data models that calculate how much rain can be expected.

Then we weigh different factors that are conducive to it becoming like this, such as heavy thunderstorms and large amounts of rainfall, says Therese Fougman.

Together with the County Administrative Board and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), there are threshold values for when consequences can be expected for critical societal functions.

In this case, we saw it already yesterday (Tuesday, ed. note) and we've seen it coming for several days.

Decision after warning

Västtrafik warned about cancelled departures already on Tuesday, and on Wednesday morning, several train journeys in western Sweden were cancelled. But how the warning affects companies is not something SMHI concerns itself with, says Fougman.

We can only talk about how the conditions look: This is what we think and here are the risks with the approaching weather. Then the recipient has to make a decision about whether to operate.

Warnings fail

In 2023, SMHI had an accuracy rate of 73 percent with its warnings, according to their annual report. This means that more than every fourth warning turned out to be incorrect. In 2022, the accuracy rate was higher, 81 percent, but then the authority also issued half as many warnings. The increase is due to 2023 being an intense weather year.

In almost all cases, it becomes what we thought. Sometimes we miss, it happens. It's still forecasts we're working with.

But even if the forecast doesn't always come true, it's not primarily the weather itself that SMHI warns about.

When we see that there's a risk of consequences for critical societal functions, we issue a warning, says Fougman.

Corrected: An earlier version contained incorrect information about when Västtrafik cancelled train departures.

SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) issues weather warnings on three levels.

Yellow warning: Consequences for society, some risks for the general public.

Orange warning: Serious consequences for society, danger for the general public.

Red warning: Very serious consequences for society, great danger for the general public.

Tags
TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

Body in burnt-out car identified
1 MIN READ

Body in burnt-out car identified

Record Amount of Hazardous Waste Stopped by Customs
3 MIN READ

Record Amount of Hazardous Waste Stopped by Customs

Unusual stone find reveals "stunning history"
1 MIN READ

Unusual stone find reveals "stunning history"

Shot Classmate in School Toilet – Claims Accident
3 MIN READ

Shot Classmate in School Toilet – Claims Accident

The year started with many explosions
1 MIN READ

The year started with many explosions

Explosion in apartment building in Gothenburg
1 MIN READ

Explosion in apartment building in Gothenburg

Explosion at gate to apartment building in Alby
1 MIN READ

Explosion at gate to apartment building in Alby

Woman hit a small child in a stroller
1 MIN READ

Woman hit a small child in a stroller

Education that quickly leads to a job
3 MIN READ

Education that quickly leads to a job

Expert: ADHD is not a disease, but a social issue
3 MIN READ

Expert: ADHD is not a disease, but a social issue

Young man suspected of rape at school
1 MIN READ

Young man suspected of rape at school

After the leak in the Baltic Sea: Record-large methane emission
3 MIN READ

After the leak in the Baltic Sea: Record-large methane emission

Elderly man dies – drove into tree
1 MIN READ

Elderly man dies – drove into tree

Warning about dangerous chew toys for dogs
1 MIN READ

Warning about dangerous chew toys for dogs

Stoltenberg: "Trump is not against NATO itself"
2 MIN READ

Stoltenberg: "Trump is not against NATO itself"

Better work environment since Kinberg Batra left
1 MIN READ

Better work environment since Kinberg Batra left

Ivo to investigate the Millennium disaster
1 MIN READ

Ivo to investigate the Millennium disaster

Teacher seriously injured in stabbing at school
3 MIN READ

Teacher seriously injured in stabbing at school

The Sweden Democrats Take a Stand for Loyalty Declaration
1 MIN READ

The Sweden Democrats Take a Stand for Loyalty Declaration

Slower Trains and Delays Ahead
1 MIN READ

Slower Trains and Delays Ahead