SwedenLivingWorld world_2_fill WorldBusiness BusinessSports sports-soccer SportsEntertainmentEntertain

SMHI: Then we issue a warning

Rain or sunshine? It's not always the case that the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute's (SMHI) weather forecasts are entirely accurate. But it's not the weather itself that's the focus when a yellow warning is issued. It's actually the consequences we're warning about, says Therese Fougman, meteorologist at SMHI.

» Updated: 05 October 2024, 17:23

» Published: 11 July 2024

SMHI: Then we issue a warning
Photo: Magnus Lejhall/TT

Rain or sunshine?

It's not always the case that SMHI's weather forecasts are entirely accurate. But it's not the weather itself that's in focus when a yellow warning is issued.

It's actually the consequences we're warning about, says Therese Fougman, meteorologist at SMHI.

On Wednesday, SMHI issued a yellow warning for rain and thunderstorms over southern Sweden. Before a warning is issued, the authority looks at data models that calculate how much rain can be expected.

Then we weigh different factors that are conducive to it becoming like this, such as heavy thunderstorms and large amounts of rainfall, says Therese Fougman.

Together with the County Administrative Board and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), there are threshold values for when consequences can be expected for critical societal functions.

In this case, we saw it already yesterday (Tuesday, ed. note) and we've seen it coming for several days.

Decision after warning

Västtrafik warned about cancelled departures already on Tuesday, and on Wednesday morning, several train journeys in western Sweden were cancelled. But how the warning affects companies is not something SMHI concerns itself with, says Fougman.

We can only talk about how the conditions look: This is what we think and here are the risks with the approaching weather. Then the recipient has to make a decision about whether to operate.

Warnings fail

In 2023, SMHI had an accuracy rate of 73 percent with its warnings, according to their annual report. This means that more than every fourth warning turned out to be incorrect. In 2022, the accuracy rate was higher, 81 percent, but then the authority also issued half as many warnings. The increase is due to 2023 being an intense weather year.

In almost all cases, it becomes what we thought. Sometimes we miss, it happens. It's still forecasts we're working with.

But even if the forecast doesn't always come true, it's not primarily the weather itself that SMHI warns about.

When we see that there's a risk of consequences for critical societal functions, we issue a warning, says Fougman.

Corrected: An earlier version contained incorrect information about when Västtrafik cancelled train departures.

SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) issues weather warnings on three levels.

Yellow warning: Consequences for society, some risks for the general public.

Orange warning: Serious consequences for society, danger for the general public.

Red warning: Very serious consequences for society, great danger for the general public.

Tags
TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

The King on the Climate Meeting: It's Moving Too Slowly
2 MIN READ

The King on the Climate Meeting: It's Moving Too Slowly

Resignation Demand on Demirok: "Weak Leadership"
3 MIN READ

Resignation Demand on Demirok: "Weak Leadership"

Town Hall Evacuated Due to Threatening Note
1 MIN READ

Town Hall Evacuated Due to Threatening Note

The Government appoints new Chancellor of Justice
1 MIN READ

The Government appoints new Chancellor of Justice

The Liberals' office attacked: "Abhorrent"
2 MIN READ

The Liberals' office attacked: "Abhorrent"

Three charged with thermos bomb in Malmö
1 MIN READ

Three charged with thermos bomb in Malmö

Kristersson: "Close dialogue with other countries"
1 MIN READ

Kristersson: "Close dialogue with other countries"

The Social Democrats want answers about stopped wind farms
1 MIN READ

The Social Democrats want answers about stopped wind farms

Two charged with fatal shooting at restaurant
1 MIN READ

Two charged with fatal shooting at restaurant

Power Outage in Court: "Sitting in Darkness"
1 MIN READ

Power Outage in Court: "Sitting in Darkness"

The Navy investigates sabotage on another cable
1 MIN READ

The Navy investigates sabotage on another cable

The parties behind the Tidö agreement want a cap on the size of children's groups.
3 MIN READ

The parties behind the Tidö agreement want a cap on the size of children's groups.

Åkesson: Total Stop for Citizenship
1 MIN READ

Åkesson: Total Stop for Citizenship

Man arrested for new sex crimes against children
1 MIN READ

Man arrested for new sex crimes against children

Five detained after explosion on Östermalm
1 MIN READ

Five detained after explosion on Östermalm

Further No to Offshore Wind Power
1 MIN READ

Further No to Offshore Wind Power

Investigation launched after report against Dumpen
1 MIN READ

Investigation launched after report against Dumpen

Proposal for Climate Agreement Slammed: Unacceptable
2 MIN READ

Proposal for Climate Agreement Slammed: Unacceptable

Four out of ten houses have deficiencies in fire protection.
1 MIN READ

Four out of ten houses have deficiencies in fire protection.

Snow and strong winds – many households without power
2 MIN READ

Snow and strong winds – many households without power