It may be the toughest negotiation in world politics. But when Donald Trump met Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the temporary ceasefire in the Gaza War, he seemingly changed the game plan by announcing that the US will take over the Gaza Strip.
Before the leaders' meeting, most questions had revolved around the ceasefire, whose first phase ends at the turn of the month.
Everything about the US taking over Gaza made us miss the real thing from the meeting, says Aaron David Miller, American analyst at the think tank Carnegie and former Middle East diplomat, to The New York Times.
In this way, attention was diverted from Netanyahu, Miller assesses. Israel is negotiating a continuation of the ceasefire that may become politically unsustainable for him.
Aiming for the stars
President Donald Trump has in many ways negotiated with other states as he would have done as a businessman, with varying success.
"I aim very high and then just keep pushing and pushing until I get what I'm after", he wrote in his best-selling book "The Art of the Deal" from 1987, which constantly re-emerges as a reference work in the president's negotiations.
One should get an upper hand, come out with unexpectedly tough demands, and let the counterpart hover in uncertainty. Observers have likened it to first delivering a punch and then inviting to talks.
Trump has threatened neighboring countries Canada and Mexico with punitive tariffs, followed by negotiations. Statements about Canada becoming an American state have been toned down by the country's government as an attempt at distraction.
The President says the US must take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, but has not wanted to answer whether it can happen by military means.
"Killing a chicken"
Punitive tariffs can be effective tools in the short term, says Michael Froman, chairman of the think tank Council on Foreign Relations and former high-ranking official in Democratic governments.
But in the long term, it raises questions about how credible the US is as an ally and partner, and gives other countries reason to look around and hedge, he says in a podcast from Politico.
Sooner or later, Trump will have to "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys", says Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to The New York Times. That is, make a threat a reality to show that it's serious.
He hopes that no one wants to be the first chicken. But eventually, someone will challenge him. The monkeys are watching.
