Over the course of a few days, around the turn of July and August, several top French politicians were subjected to smear campaigns. In early August, fake and anonymous X and TikTok accounts appeared claiming that former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is one of the leading candidates for the 2027 presidential election, suffers from Parkinson's disease, among other things. A few days earlier, a similar campaign had begun circulating, claiming that Édouard Philippe, also one of the leading presidential candidates, suffers from dementia.
The European Parliament member Raphaël Glucksmann, who has been openly critical of Russia, was also targeted by smear campaigns, in which his wife was accused, among other things, of bribing French newspapers to write positively about her husband. Glucksmann is tipped to run as the left-wing candidate in the presidential election.
“The Swedish Defence and National Security Agency (SGDSN) has informed me that I was the target of an attack carried out by the Storm1516 group, directly orchestrated by the GRU (Russian military intelligence),” Glucksmann wrote on X after the incident.
Influence the election
According to the French agency Viginum, which is tasked with combating foreign information influence online, the influence campaigns against French politicians can be linked to networks with ties to the Russian intelligence service GRU.
Since Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, disinformation campaigns have increased against both France and other EU countries. After Ukraine, France is the country in Europe most exposed, according to figures reviewed by The Economist.
There are several reasons why the country is a target, according to Frederick Fooy, an expert on Russian and Chinese information influence at the Psychological Defense Agency.
"France is a large and important EU and NATO country that has supported Ukraine for a long time. This is of course a red flag for Russia," says Fooy.
Another reason is the polarization in France, where the extreme parties have become increasingly popular and political divisions are a fact. Russia wants to influence the country to move in a more pro-Russian direction. In April 2027 there is a presidential election and, according to several opinion polls, the far-right politician Marine Le Pen could win the election.
Le Pen has previously shown support for Russia by defending the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and criticizing EU sanctions, although she has recently publicly distanced her party from Moscow.
Create polarization
The influence campaigns can take different forms. They can be pure smear campaigns, such as claims that President Macron allegedly had dealings with American sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. But they can also involve spreading disinformation that creates even greater polarization and contradictions in countries, says Fooy.
Russia has become more aware of the cracks and contradictions that naturally exist in all societies, and it is often these that are sought to be exploited by polarizing and fragmenting.
Another tactic is to try to flood information environments and the internet with AI-generated nonsense, Fooy explains, in order to, among other things, tire out news and media consumers.
"Consumers are exhausted so that they stop thinking critically about sources or stop caring about news media at all," he says.
But it is not just Russian information influence that has increased recently. Since 2022, various types of hybrid activities have become more common, ranging from sabotage to cyberattacks across virtually all of Europe.
In early August, an explosive-laden drone was found at Leipzig-Halle Airport in Germany, and authorities in the country do not rule out that a foreign power is behind it.
According to James Pamment, director of the Psychological Defence Research Institute at Lund University, Russia has escalated its operations as pressure on Putin increases.
Russia is conducting a form of hybrid warfare against Europe and the country is constantly escalating its attempts and taking greater risks, he says.
Pig heads in Paris
As an example, Pamment cites the pig heads that were placed outside several mosques in the Paris region last September. Several people, residing in Serbia, were arrested for the action, but according to French investigators, the traces lead to the Russian intelligence service GRU.
They recruit professional criminals to come to France and carry out these types of operations, says Pamment.
What is the purpose of these operations? Fooy believes that an overall goal is to reduce, and preferably end, support for Ukraine and remove sanctions against Russia. But also to destabilize and create tensions within and between countries.
Russia wants to divide and polarize both NATO and the EU, with a particular focus on the transatlantic link between Europe and the US, says Fooy.
France will hold presidential elections on April 18, 2027, with a decisive second round on May 2.
So far, more than 30 politicians have officially announced their candidacies. More are expected to announce that they will run in the election. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is not allowed to run, as he has already served two terms.
Here are some of the most highly tipped:
Marine Le Pen, 58 years old, candidate of the far-right National Rally party. Running for the fourth time.
Gabriel Attal, 37, party leader of Macron's centrist Renaissance party and former prime minister in his government.
Édouard Philippe, 55, leader of the centrist Horizons party and mayor of Le Havre. Former prime minister in Macron's government.
Bruno Retailleau, 65 years old, party leader of the right-wing Republicans party.
Raphaël Glucksmann, 46 years old, MEP who is tipped to be the candidate of the united left. Has not officially announced his candidacy.
François Hollande, 72, Socialist Party MP and former president (2012–2017). Has not officially announced his candidacy.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 74, leader of the far-left Unconquered France party. Running for the fourth time.
Source: Le Monde, Le Figaro and others
