Growth in sectors linked to state defense orders is expected to reach 4-5 percent this year, according to the Russian Ministry of Economy's three-year plan.
In recent years, growth has been around 30 percent.
In the Russian state's overall budget for 2026, spending increases are in line with inflation. The only sector where spending is cut is defense, down 11 percent.
There is a very simple explanation for the Ministry of Economy's forecast: in 2026, fiscal policy will become tighter, says Tatiana Orlova, chief economist at Oxford Economics.
The Russian economy is being pressured by reduced oil revenues, sanctions and high inflation, which was around 7-8 percent at the end of last year.
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