Israel has long had a defense doctrine that states that no state in the region can become a nuclear power. And the focus has been mainly on Iran's civilian nuclear program, which has long been seen as a threat.
We don't know how big Iran's capacity is to counterattack against Israel, but we know they are heavily weakened in the region, says Erika Holmquist.
She means that it makes Iran motivated to acquire nuclear weapons.
I think it's a very big risk for that.
Limited defense capability
Even Pieter D Wezeman, researcher at Sipri and expert on arms issues, believes that Iran will have difficulty defending itself against Israel's attacks with more conventional weapons systems.
Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic missiles and long-range drones that can reach Israel, but they have not been particularly successful in the past.
That Israel has once again managed to carry out such large attacks on Iran shows that Iran's ability to defend itself is very limited. They have tried to produce their own air defense systems, but they are not good enough.
He shares the view that Iran is close to being able to build nuclear weapons.
Israel has apparently had information that Iran has built up a relatively large amount of highly enriched uranium. The information has also come from the IAEA's nuclear energy organization, he says.
A window
That Israel attacks Iran now, Erika Holmquist estimates, is because Israel sees a military opportunity.
One has seen that now there is a window to do this in light of the fact that Iran is heavily weakened in the region. Hizbollah and Hamas are heavily reduced.
She also notes that the recent talks between the Trump administration and Iran – where the US has talked about lifting some sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran stopping enriching nuclear fuel – are not seen with a favorable eye in Israel.
Several facilities
Pieter D Wezeman says that the reports that it is not only about air attacks but that Israel also had people on the ground who infiltrated Iran suggest that Israel's attacks have been prepared for a longer time.
When one has assessed that the risk is great that Iran will very soon have nuclear weapons and that this therefore presents an existential risk to the country itself, one strikes. Israel wants to ensure that they have destroyed as much of the nuclear infrastructure as possible in Iran and killed as many Iranian experts as possible who can contribute to building nuclear weapons, he says and continues:
But taking Natanz does not mean that Iran no longer has the opportunity to enrich uranium. One can assume that they have more facilities scattered throughout the country.
