Very few direct contacts between European leaders and the Kremlin have taken place since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than four years ago.
According to Kjell Engelbrekt, the phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb was likely coordinated with the United States.
Stubb and Støre appear to be acting in concert with American attempts to probe, says Engelbrekt.
The direct contact with Putin comes a week after Støre and Stubb hosted and took part in a meeting in Oslo between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
In harmony with the United States
Such conflicts cannot go on for as long as they want. It is obvious to more and more Russians that this war is really going on. Added to that is the Trump administration, and as far as I can tell, it is the Americans who want these probes to be initiated.
Ahead of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, domestic political pressure on the Republicans and the Trump administration is mounting.
You could be facing a very big election defeat, and then you want to send positive messages. You want to bring life to these negotiations, or at least give the appearance that negotiations are taking place.
Criticism has been expressed over Norway and Finland’s decision to initiate contact with the Kremlin. Europe has valued the image of being coordinated in its relations with Russia. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is “very skeptical” and says the conversation was not coordinated with other European countries.
Prefer Stubb and Støre
But according to Kjell Engelbrekt, Stubb and Støre are leaders trusted within NATO and by the US government, and are preferable from a Russian perspective to other European voices.
The Russian side does not want to talk to the President of the European Commission. Perhaps there is a certain confidence that neither Norway nor Finland wants to escalate this conflict in any way, but simply wants to bring about a process.
According to Engelbrekt, Putin’s response to Finland and Norway’s initiative for a direct conversation could signal cautious diplomatic progress in efforts to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
It is the closest thing to a Russian initiative we have seen, says Kjell Engelbrekt.
