I have never thought that there would be armed soldiers on two sides. The civil war that I have imagined is with extreme political waves of violence and uprisings. And I think it is here now, says Stephen Marche.
In the book "The Next Civil War" (2022) he interviewed military leaders, Secret Service agents, researchers and experts about the risks of American civil war. He compares the USA after the murder of Charlie Kirk with Italy's bloody years of lead and Northern Ireland's "The Troubles".
"More murders"
Jan Hallenberg, associate senior researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs, draws parallels to the USA in the 60s and 70s, which were dominated by political violence from both the right and the left.
The development is already unfortunate and there will unfortunately be more political murders, I absolutely believe that.
Hallenberg means that the attack on Charlie Kirk, but also the reactions from the right, have increased the risks of an escalation of violence. Such as people getting fired for having expressed themselves critically about Kirk's views, or attempts to prevent organizations that collect money for the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections in 2026.
He points to statements by Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff at the White House and close advisor to Trump, where the Democrats are called an extremist organization.
It's a language that is despicable and completely undemocratic, says Hallenberg.
The murder of Charlie Kirk follows several attacks on Democrats, including the murders of Minnesota politician Melissa Hortman and her husband, the arson attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's home, the hammer attack on Paul Pelosi and a foiled kidnapping attempt on Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Events that have mostly been ignored or dismissed from the Republican side.
The Republicans interpret the murder of Kirk as much worse. And as a receipt for what one sees as the left's goal, according to Jan Hallenberg.
There is no evidence for it, but that's what they say.
Violence and spectacle
Stephen Marche thinks that the reactions to Kirk's murder are partly similar to those of the murder of Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare, where the suspected murderer Luigi Mangione has become a folk hero for some on the left. In the same environment, there are people who think that Kirk "got what he deserved", according to Stephen Marche.
It's really something new and a sign of a real breakdown of the political landscape.
According to Marche, an erosion of the institutions of society has created a distrust of political change and led to a fragmentation of ideologies and political debate, defined by "memes, online anger and computer games”.
The USA is entering a period where the country is in practice defined by two things: violence and spectacle, he says.
31-year-old Charlie Kirk was shot dead while speaking in front of a large crowd at Utah Valley University on September 10.
The young father has been described as a superstar within the American right and was close to President Donald Trump, and it was Trump who a few hours after the shooting announced via social media that Kirk was dead.
As an 18-year-old, Kirk co-founded the conservative student organization Turning Point USA and is said to have been a contributing factor to why so many young Americans voted for Trump in last year's election.
Charlie Kirk will posthumously be awarded the USA's highest honor for civilians, Trump has stated.
