Parts of Europe and Canada Have Already Warmed by 2 Degrees, Study Finds

According to the Paris Agreement, countries around the world must strive to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The UN has said this goal will not be met, and new calculations indicate that the limit has already been exceeded in several parts of the world. In a study published in Nature Climate Change, researchers used historical data and climate models to forecast how warming will affect different parts of the world, including places where data is lacking.

We have used data and simulation models and, for the first time, have been able to estimate the impact of warming even in regions where comprehensive data has been lacking, says Francis Zwiers, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria in Canada, during a press conference.

Already there

According to the researchers behind the study, there is much evidence that many parts of the world have already experienced around 90 percent of the warming expected when the planet reaches 1.5 degrees of warming by 2025.

Parts of Europe and Canada are highlighted as regions that have already experienced two degrees of warming.

We now have more evidence that we will soon pass the 1.5-degree target and need to act quickly to avoid exceeding two degrees, says Tong Li, also a climate scientist at the University of Victoria and one of the study's authors.

Warmest October

The results can support local adaptation plans and calculations of climate-related damage and losses.

If you build bridges or houses, you have to take this into account. We need to consider what climate we are designing for and how we are going to meet it, says Tong Li.

The researchers are publishing their findings as the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that October 2026 was the warmest October globally, with an average temperature 1.75 degrees above the pre-industrial average.

With just two months left, all indications are that the global average temperature for the year will exceed 1.5 degrees. This would be the second calendar year to do so, after 2024.