Over the weekend, another cable break has occurred in the Baltic Sea and a ship has been seized just outside Karlskrona.
Jens Wenzel, active at Nordic Defence Analysis, has great difficulty believing the Bulgarian shipping company's claims that an anchor on the cargo ship Vezhen "came loose" during a storm and caused damage.
This is not an accident, he says.
I believe this is something systematic. That's my assessment, even though we still don't know what the Swedish investigations will show.
The damage to the anchor is unusually extensive and cannot have occurred simply by forcing a telecommunications cable on the bottom, he notes further. It must have hit something larger, such as a larger stone on the seabed, he means.
Sweden on its toes
Former Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi points to Russia as the most likely actor if it's a case of sabotage. And there's hope of getting answers.
This time, Sweden is more on its toes.
According to Paasikivi, it's obvious that Russia is waging a hybrid war against the West.
The security situation is such that one looks much closer at all types of incidents involving cable breaks and gas pipeline breaks. It's part of a possible hybrid warfare, he says.
Damaged on Sunday
The underwater cable, which runs between Gotland and Ventspils, belongs to a Latvian radio and TV company and was reported damaged on Sunday. The same day, Swedish authorities launched an investigation into gross sabotage.
According to Joakim Paasikivi, there are two possible explanations for the cable break: Either natural causes, such as ocean currents, or influence from an external actor. If it's an external actor, it could be an accident or something done intentionally.
Could be intentional
The only one who benefits from cable breaks in the Baltic Sea is Russia, according to Joakim Paasikivi.
If it's a mechanical influence, where one can prove that someone did it intentionally, then it's very hard to see that it would be anyone other than Russia.
