At the last interest rate meeting in January, Per Jansson opened up the possibility that he might vote for a rate cut in March, the minutes show. With just over a month left until the next meeting, however, he emphasizes that many pieces of the puzzle still remain to be determined.
The development of the krona
Among other things, another inflation reading and details about the unexpectedly low reading in January will be released soon. Per Jansson also highlights the importance of the development of the krona, as it has probably contributed to the low inflationary pressure.
We'll see how it develops and the world at large.
The Swedish Central Bank's latest interest rate path indicates that the key interest rate will remain unchanged until the end of 2026. Per Jansson has objected to the interest rate path but has not formally reserved his position. One question is how the reduction in food VAT on April 1 will affect the outlook.
Could cause disruption
This VAT change will mess things up. But with the underlying inflation picture close to target, there is less reason to do anything with monetary policy.
On Friday, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) announced that the scope for reform for the entire next term of office is, in principle, exhausted. Per Jansson says that the Swedish Central Bank incorporates fiscal policy assumptions into its work, both in the form of what is stated in the budgets and what is planned.
It's in our baggage. When we think about our interest-rate setting, we carry that with us.
