If the Swedish Central Bank were to lower the interest rate from today's 2 percent, which Erik Thedéen and his board have hinted may become relevant later this year, it could lower the krona. And that in turn could create new inflation problems, warns Nordea's economists.
”For households, it is central that inflation comes down and that weighs heavier than another interest rate cut”, the bank writes.
In the interest market, the probability of another interest rate cut this year is down to 1.75 percent in interest rate at 100 percent right now. After that, the probability is around 30 percent that there will be a cut to, down to 1.5 percent.
Swedbank's economists, according to an economic forecast from earlier in the week, count on two cuts in the interest rate already this year. SEB's economists believe that the Swedish Central Bank will be satisfied with one cut.
The interest rate – which in just over a year has been halved from 4 percent – normally affects short-term interest rates in the entire economy, not least variable mortgage rates.
If the interest rate on a mortgage loan of three million kronor were to be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, it would reduce the cost of the loan by 1,250 kronor per month, if one disregards the effects of the interest deduction.
