On Tuesday, the government significantly lowered its forecast for Swedish growth.
Instead of 2.1 percent, which the government counted on in the spring budget, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) now believes in a GDP growth of 0.9 percent for 2025.
This is described by Annika Winsth as "completely too pessimistic".
My assessment is that the Swedish economy has bottomed out and that a growth rate will rather be around 1 to 1.5 percent.
Safer households
She describes it as a gradual recovery of the economy.
There have been setbacks, it's messy in the world, but that doesn't mean the recovery isn't underway. I mean that the government is too cautious in their assessment, she says.
This is based, among other things, on the purchasing power of households.
We see that households have good conditions to consume, and they have started consuming durable goods. They are a bit more expensive and then you have to feel a bit safer, and that's what they do now.
But Annika Winsth also hears a changed attitude from the business community, where companies have long talked about waiting.
Now they have started talking more about the fact that they actually need to start acting. You can't wait forever.
In the fall, Annika Winsth expects the government to present an expansive budget. According to her, it is needed, so that the business community will do well, long-term investments in access to competence and infrastructure are required.
Then I mean in a broad sense, everything from roads and railways to AI technology and sustainable electricity. That's where the government should focus, she says.
Worried about patching
That it will really be so, however, she is more uncertain about.
I'm a bit worried that since it's an election year, there will be quite a lot of patching to make everyone happy, and that's not what we need right now, she says and continues:
We are in a weak economic cycle, so you can absolutely have an expansive budget, but it's important how you use the money. It should be used in a long-term, wise and strategic way.
