Around 40 percent of new car sales in Sweden today are pure electric cars. Next year, the 50 percent mark will be passed and by 2034 the share will be up to almost 98 percent, according to a main scenario from Power Circle, an interest group for electrification in Sweden.
It is no longer a question of whether, but when the transition to electric cars will be fully achieved, according to analyst Daniel Lindekrans Henriksson, who compiled the report.
Military green vs. forest green
Studies show that 75 percent of electric car buyers are driven by purely economic reasons, such as the purchase price and the cost of fuel, where the price at the fossil fuel pump has a significantly greater impact than the price of electricity. Twenty-five percent are motivated by other values such as the environment and, for example, that the neighbor has acquired an electric vehicle.
But why is it so important that we switch to electric cars?
"Mainly because it reduces our exposure to the oil market. Then you can talk about environmental reasons. The environmental movement has become a bit military green now instead of forest green, perhaps," says Lindekrans Henriksson.
He points out that Sweden ranks last among the Nordic countries in electric car sales, and that this is due to political decisions made during the last term of office. First, the electric car bonus disappeared (now partially returned), then the reduction obligation and fuel taxes were lowered, which made it less economically advantageous to buy an electric car.
Can't get worse
But now it is not possible to worsen that situation any further, Lindekrans Henriksson reasons.
"That's why it's now taking such a steep upward turn, because you can't keep lowering fuel prices. It's clear that if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, you'll see an effect there, but fiscally and politically, you don't have many more tools left to push down electric car demand," he says.
And in the meantime, a lot of new electric car models have been released. Recently, electric cars surpassed gasoline-powered cars as the most traded on the used market.
According to calculations, the "delayed" transition in recent years has cost 160 billion kronor in fossil fuel import bills, based on more fossil cars sold than otherwise and the fact that a car is on the road for 18 years.
Therefore, it will take a long time before the entire Swedish car fleet runs on electricity. Even if new car sales pick up, it will take 8-9 years before half of the entire car fleet is powered by electricity.
Facts: Electric cars in the Nordic countries
The proportion of new pure electric cars sold at the beginning of 2026:
Norway, 98 percent
Denmark, 80 percent
Finland, almost 50 percent
Sweden, 40 percent
Source: Power Circle
