The main scenario is a "short-term" conflict in the Middle East, which would dampen global growth this year to 2.7 percent - from last year's 3.0 percent, according to Business Sweden.
But it could get worse, notes Chief Economist Lena Sellgren, if higher oil and gas prices erode households' purchasing power, raise companies' costs and make investment and trade more cautious.
“Despite that, this is not a recession with negative global GDP growth like during the pandemic or the financial crisis,” Sellgren writes.
