“We have made a historic change in Iran.” “We have had incredible successes.” “We have crushed the regime.”
With superlatives upon superlatives, “Bibi” Netanyahu has hammered home the message of victory since the US - seemingly behind Israel’s back - declared a ceasefire with Iran. At the same time, the opposition has seen a golden opportunity to garner votes ahead of the upcoming election.
Netanyahu led us to a total strategic failure, opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) has claimed at a press conference.
Of all the possible outcomes, Netanyahu delivered the worst: the regime in Iran is undefeated, the nuclear threat remains, and the ballistic missiles and Hezbollah rockets are still aimed at every home in Israel.
61 seats
Israel will hold elections in October at the latest, and opinion polls have long shown that Netanyahu's ruling bloc may have difficulty maintaining its majority in the Knesset.
If there were elections today, he would not be able to reach 61 seats (the majority required to form a functioning government), says Uriel Abulof, professor of political science at Tel Aviv University, TAU.
On paper, the Iran war, often called Netanyahu's "dream war," was timely for the prime minister, who is threatened by declining public opinion. Support for the bombing of Iran and Lebanon is high among Israelis, according to recent polls, and the plan was a clear victory over Tehran that would secure Netanyahu's place in history.
Were there expectations?
But a majority is also against the ceasefire - and now they are disappointed, says Uriel Abulof.
There was overwhelming support for the war - with the expectation that it would lead to the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear energy program, undermine its missile program, and reduce support for Iran's allies, especially Hezbollah.
None of that was fulfilled. So in that regard, there is great disappointment.
Now the question is whether the perceived war fiasco will affect 76-year-old Netanyahu, who has already been in power for 18 years, in the election. Abulof is doubtful: in a “real democracy” it might have, he says - but not in today’s Israel. Those Netanyahu supporters who are disappointed will find others to blame, he believes.
Despite the October 7 attack, despite all the wars, despite the legal changes in the judiciary, his numbers are quite stable.
Israelis' actual opinions on various issues are almost completely insignificant compared to how they feel about certain individuals and groups they hate. Netanyahu has been adept at creating animosity, hatred, fear, and division.
In addition to the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a number of challenges both at home and abroad.
Trial: Since 2020, Netanyahu has been on trial in three separate cases involving bribery, fraud and breach of trust. So far, the prime minister has managed to delay the process in various ways, mainly citing the war in Gaza and later in Iran. Late last year, Netanyahu submitted a formal request for clemency in the case to President Isaac Herzog.
Criticized law change: Netanyahu's government has been trying for several years to pass comprehensive changes to Israel's judicial system. The law change shifts power from the judiciary to politics by, among other things, giving the government greater influence over judicial appointments. Before the Gaza war, there were large popular protests against the change, but the protests have been dampened by the security situation during the Gaza war and later the Iran war.
October 7th investigation: Calls for an independent investigation into the October 7th attack in 2023, which was the starting point of the war against Hamas, have been loud for some time. So far, Netanyahu has opposed such an investigation, according to analysts, because he would likely bear the brunt of criticism for Israel being caught off guard.
ICC Warrant: In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, who is accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. This means that countries party to the ICC's founding document, the Rome Statute, are obliged to arrest Netanyahu if he sets foot there.
Born on October 21, 1949, in Tel Aviv. Raised in Jerusalem, later educated in the United States. Served in an elite force in the Israeli army from 1967 to 1973, when he left the military with the rank of captain.
His older brother Yonatan was part of the same elite force but was killed in 1976 in an attempt to free Israeli hostages on a hijacked plane in Uganda. Benjamin then began a career in the United States, but moved back to Israel and entered politics.
He is leader of the right-wing Likud party, Prime Minister of Israel from 1996 to 1999 and 2009 to 2021. In 2022, he managed to regain power, but only after painstakingly putting together a coalition with the help of, among other things, small extremist parties.
