Nawrocki succeeded in mobilizing voter groups to the right to win over his EU-friendly rival Rafal Trzaskowski with a narrow margin. Now, the 42-year-old historian will become Poland's new president on August 6.
Nawrocki represents not only Law and Justice (PIS), the party he comes from, but his victory has also largely been about him approaching the far-right and their voters.
They stand for a clearly anti-Ukrainian policy and have an antagonistic attitude towards Kyiv. I would describe it as a cold headwind for Ukraine, says Stefan Ingvarsson, analyst at the Centre for Eastern European Studies at the Foreign Policy Institute, with a focus on Polish foreign policy.
Ukraine's workforce worries
Those voter groups are very skeptical of immigration and see a potential Ukrainian EU membership as a threat to Polish production and jobs.
It affects the Polish labor market if a very large country with even lower wage levels than Poland's enters the EU.
Military balancing act
But Nawrocki wants to see continued military support to Ukraine. On that point, he differs from other populists in Europe.
It is in Poland's interest that the war against Russia and the struggles against Russia's aggressive policy are fought in Ukraine and not at the Polish border.
They have their own historical memory of being occupied by Russia and the Soviet Union, and therefore, there is no fertile ground for pro-Russian attitudes.
When it comes to NATO, Poland does not want to see any competition in its vision of becoming a European power in the defense area.
Poland is becoming one of Europe's leading armed forces and aims to have one of Europe's strongest defenses. At the same time, Ukraine is currently Europe's most experienced and competent army. Therefore, they do not want to see Ukraine in NATO, there is a rivalry there, says Stefan Ingvarsson.
The country is primarily governed by the prime minister and government. There, Poland changed direction in the 2023 election, when a left-leaning and EU-friendly coalition led by Donald Tusk could take over, after eight years of tough rule by the right-wing PIS. The president is elected in separate elections, and it is that which has now been settled. The head of state has some influence over foreign policy and also a great opportunity to stop and veto legislation. The outgoing right-wing president, PIS-supported Andrzej Duda, has used that opportunity to put obstacles in the way of Tusk's government.
