Poland's president Karol Nawrocki is satisfied. NATO sent "a clear signal" when Polish and Dutch fighter jets were sent up to meet the invading Russian drones last week, he says to German Bild:
I think NATO passed the test on September 10.
Fredrik Wesslau, formerly with the EU mission in Ukraine and now a researcher at the Centre for Eastern European Studies, is not as convinced.
Yes, they shot down three or four of the drones, which was the first time NATO allies actually did it. It's a step forward – but at the same time, the vast majority were not shot down.
”Must deter”
Politically, NATO has made a statement, Wesslau thinks. Quickly, the alliance's Article 4 on emergency consultation was invoked, which has only happened seven times before. Shortly thereafter, news came of reinforcements to NATO's eastern flank. The question is whether it's enough.
What it ultimately comes down to is that you have to deter Russia – and take measures that also involve some kind of cost.
For example, NATO could provide Ukraine with more long-range weapons that they are allowed to fire at Russian military targets, he says.
An alternative is also that NATO allies, such as Poland, start shooting down Russian drones and missiles before they reach Polish airspace. Or that soldiers from NATO allied countries are sent to Ukraine, not to fight on the front line but to provide support to the Ukrainian defence on site in various ways.
Violated Poland's airspace
So far, Russia seems far from deterred. On Saturday, a Russian drone violated Romania's airspace, without action from NATO. And on Monday, Polish authorities arrested two young people who are said to have links to Belarus, suspected of flying a drone over the presidential palace in Warsaw.
Russia has expanded the war beyond Ukraine's borders, notes Fredrik Wesslau. And NATO reacted too late.
The problem is that if you don't push back, you open up for Russia to continue testing how far they can go. And then you essentially open up for further Russian escalation.
The Russian violations are testing not only NATO but also the US, adds Wesslau, who believes that Russia has been strengthened by the American response. After last week's incident, President Trump stated that it "may have been a mistake".
Counter drone strategy
"A gift to Russia", Wesslau notes.
It's another sign that Europe can no longer rely on the US as a guarantee for our security.
NATO must do more, he says. Including finding ways to counter the Russian drone strategy, where large numbers of drones are sent out at the same time to overload air defence.
I don't see that capacity existing at present.
We in NATO must become much better, sharper and more effective. We must take the initiative instead of always just reacting to what Russia does.
