Russia, as in previous years of the war, has declared a ceasefire on its own initiative for the annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9 and the day before. This is when the memory of the victims of World War II will be commemorated, which in Russia usually takes place with large military demonstrations of power in Moscow.
This year, it will be a much smaller show than in previous years. The country's most powerful missiles and tanks will not be rolled out. Cadets from military schools will not be called in to march.
"They cannot afford to deploy military equipment, and they fear that drones could buzz over Red Square," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the other day.
“All measures are being taken”
Four years after Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, both sides have fewer and fewer soldiers to bring in. The Russian army is suffering particularly heavy losses on a frozen front line.
Ukraine is striking back against targets in Russia with a growing number of drone attacks that reach further into the country. Many are targeting oil facilities. On Monday, a drone crashed into an apartment building in Moscow, half a mile from the Kremlin, after a weekend of drone alerts.
On the Russian side, the Ukrainian attacks are described as an escalation of “terrorist activity.” Zelenskyy's suggestion of drones over Red Square is taken as an explicit threat.
"All measures are being taken, of course, to minimize this danger," President Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last week.
Threats of retaliation
The Russian Ministry of Defense has warned Ukraine against trying to disrupt the parade – with threats of retaliation in the form of huge missile strikes on central Kyiv.
Several of Russia's pro-regime war correspondents are further sharpening their tone and calling for forceful action.
"When Kyiv tries to attack in that way, the counterattack on Kyiv must be so painful and devastating that our enemies realize it's a done deal," writes the account Dva Majora, adding that mushroom clouds should then rise over the Ukrainian capital, without much regard for civilians.
Not effective previously
Ukraine declared its own ceasefire a few days earlier, but it is unclear whether any ceasefire will have any effect. Previous unilateral moves in the war have not had that effect.
The subject of a ceasefire reportedly came up when Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump spoke on the phone recently, but Ukraine has not heard anything about it, Zelenskyy has emphasized.
"This is Russia's war against Ukraine," Zelenskyy says, according to Ukrainian media, pointing out that there are deadly Russian attacks against Ukraine almost daily.
Every year on May 9, Russia commemorates the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II – or the Great Patriotic War, as it is called there. Many millions of Soviet soldiers and civilians died in the war.
Vladimir Putin has placed increasing importance on Victory Day and the parade in Moscow, but the Russian celebration is sensitive in many other former Soviet states where great sacrifices were also made. Relations with Russia have changed and the grand parades are seen as propaganda for today's Russian armed forces.
Russia justifies its invasion of Ukraine with false claims that the country is ruled by "Nazis" and that Ukrainian independence is extremist - to give the impression that today's war continues the struggle that was fought over 80 years ago, and to allude to a deeply rooted victory narrative among many Russians.
Nazi Germany surrendered after midnight on May 9, Moscow time. Ukraine has moved the entire holiday to May 8, in line with countries to the west, as a mark of remembrance.
