The FRA is one of Sweden's most secret intelligence agencies and primarily engages in signals intelligence.
In its annual report, it notes that the surrounding world is increasingly characterized by parallel crises and that Sweden continues to be exposed to serious threats.
We see it from state actors who also sometimes influence terrorist cells and use organized crime and their opportunities to carry out tasks. So it's a new situation in some respects, says Björn Lyrvall.
Putting the puzzle together
The FRA's task is to provide the government, the Swedish Armed Forces, Säpo, and Noa with qualified intelligence on the threats against Sweden. For example, they monitor how Russian ships and aircraft move in the nearby area. The incident in December when four Russian military aircraft approached Gotland is an example of an event where the FRA can serve as an alarm bell.
It's a warning, to follow what could potentially constitute a threat to the country, says Lyrvall, without going into the individual case.
It can also involve keeping track of cyber attacks, hybrid threats to critical infrastructure, and sabotage plans.
According to Björn Lyrvall, Swedish signals intelligence is sufficient to predict a Russian attack.
I think you can say that. We've been following developments for several decades, and can put the puzzle together and map movements that could potentially lead to some form of aggression against the country, he says.
Prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, another of Sweden's intelligence agencies, Must, stated that a large-scale attack was not very likely, as reported by DN.
Now, there are warnings in Europe that Russia may attack more countries after Ukraine.
What is it that says that the authorities can predict it next time?
If it's a larger attack, you would see a buildup period, which precedes some form of political decision to carry out such an action, says Lyrvall.
Growing rapidly
The FRA is now growing rapidly. In just a few years, the budget will triple, from 1.2 billion kronor in 2020 to the announced 3.6 billion in 2027. The money is primarily used for more personnel, but also to strengthen technology and scale protection.
A strengthened capability is the new signals intelligence ship Artemis, which was commissioned last year. The ship replaces Orion, which has been used for 40 years.
It's a significant improvement, says Lyrvall.
The ship primarily operates in the southeastern Baltic Sea. This includes, among other things, the heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Lyrvall does not want to answer whether Russian ships disrupt the FRA's operations.
We keep a proper distance from the territorial border, of course.
Signals intelligence involves obtaining information (intelligence) from electronic signals.
It can be signals in radio, wire, or radar signals.
The FRA conducts signals intelligence using various methods, both from fixed stations on land and from mobile platforms in the form of aircraft and ships.
The Swedish Armed Forces' aircraft S102B, for example, has the primary task of conducting airborne signals intelligence for the FRA.
Signals intelligence ships have greater endurance than aircraft. In 2024, the new ship Artemis replaced the old Orion, which has been used by the FRA for four decades.
Source: FRA
