The last time Russia carried out a major mobilization, meaning it more or less forced soldiers into service, was in the fall of 2022. Then 300,000 people were mobilized.
Since then, the country's leader Vladimir Putin has instead encouraged Russians to enlist voluntarily, including through lucrative contracts.
Fewer and fewer people are signing contracts
But it's getting harder. In the last quarter of last year, the number of Russians signing contracts with the military fell by 35 percent, according to estimates by Istories, a Russian-exile investigative journalism site. And according to analyst Janis Kluge, who runs the blog Russianomics, 800-1,000 Russians signed contracts every day in the first quarter of this year. That's 20 percent fewer than in the same period last year.
At the same time, Russian soldiers are taking less and less ground on the front. In June, the Russians advanced an average of 3.79 square kilometers per day, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the United States.
"A pace far below the Russian advance in August 2025," writes ISW in an analysis.
Military expert and Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen says he is convinced that Russia needs to mobilize more soldiers.
"To get a military decision on the battlefield, it has to happen. It would put pressure on the front," he tells TT.
Deeply unpopular
At the same time, the Russian exile media Istories and Vjorstka report, citing a number of sources close to the presidential regime and the Russian security apparatus, that a new mobilization is being discussed in the corridors of power in Moscow.
The sources emphasize that no decision has been made. Johan Huovinen believes that a decision may come after the Russian Duma elections in September.
But such a decision would be deeply unpopular among Russians, which is reflected in their internet behavior.
The exiled Russian news site Meduza reports that during one week in June, 137,000 searches were made on Yandex – Russia’s most popular search engine – about when the war against Ukraine would end. Most such searches were made in Moscow and St. Petersburg. These are regions that the Kremlin prioritizes but has yet to protect against Ukraine’s long-range attacks, writes ISW.
In Ukraine, according to Huovinen, Russia currently seems to be putting most of its effort into trying to conquer more areas in Donetsk Oblast. Bloody battles are underway over the city of Kostiantynivka.
If the Russians were to control a larger part of Donetsk region, Putin could probably declare some type of military victory, he says.
