After an escalating tone - and threats of death to “an entire civilization” - US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire on Wednesday night, local time in Sweden. Provided Iran allows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the attacks are said to be mutually halted for two weeks.
There were signs that a ceasefire was possibly underway, in the fact that Israel and the US had bombed Iran especially heavily in recent days. This often happens before ceasefires, partly to create an image of victory and partly to weaken the enemy as much as possible while you can, says Anders Persson, senior lecturer in political science at Linnaeus University.
Threat diplomacy
He believes that the Trump administration's rhetoric and strategy have been risky, risking locking the US into an escalation of the conflict. Anders Persson points out that he has not seen the content of the ten-point plan that the countries will use as a starting point for further talks, but sees last night's announcement as a partial victory for the US government.
This is an example of Trump's very aggressive negotiating strategy, or threat diplomacy, succeeding this time. He has managed to push the Iranians to the negotiating table, he says.
Failed regime change
Although both the US and Iran state that they will negotiate, Persson believes that the path to a lasting agreement could be “long and complicated.” The fact that the US and Israel have gotten Iran to negotiate is one thing, what is subsequently achieved is another.
At the same time, Trump and Israel have not succeeded in regime change, despite their claims to have done so. It is the same regime in Iran but with different faces.
Iran has taken a big bite out of it, and Iran's attack in the region has surprised some analysts.
