The prospect of a farm worker's son from the poor interior of northeastern Brazil one day holding the country's highest office seemed unlikely. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who went from shining shoes to working as a metalworker and union leader, lost several presidential elections before reaching the top for the first time in 2002.
This year, Lula was also trailing in the opinion polls for a long time ahead of the presidential election. When the 81-year-old and his Workers' Party, the PT, unexpectedly defeated right-wing populist Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, many saw it as a victory for democracy.
Lula is the politicians' answer to the Rolling Stones. He has shown incredible staying power, but the fact is that he is not getting any younger. And it is not an easy task to govern a gigantic country like Brazil. The question is how long he can last, says Andrés Rivarola, professor of Latin American studies at Stockholm University.
Lula da Silva is not without controversy. He was imprisoned over his involvement in one of Brazil’s biggest corruption scandals, “Operation Car Wash,” which began to unravel in 2014. A number of business leaders and party leaders were indicted and convicted. In 2017, Lula was sentenced to nearly ten years in prison for money laundering, corruption and accepting a beachfront apartment as a bribe from one of the country’s construction giants in exchange for lucrative contracts. He has consistently maintained that the charges against him were politically motivated. In 2019, the Supreme Court (STF) ruled that he should be released pending the outcome of all appeals. A couple of years later, the judge was found to have been biased and the trial was annulled. But Lula has yet to win the trust of all voters when it comes to his election promise to fight corruption.
José Tainan, a 36-year-old kitchen worker in Rio de Janeiro, does not remember the last time he went to the polls, but believes it was in the early 2000s and that he voted for Lula. Corruption made him stop voting.
There are no good alternatives. None of them appeal to me. I would rather justify why I did not vote, he tells the AP news agency.
New scandal
During the election campaign, a new scandal also erupted. Alexandre de Moraes, one of the judges in the case in which former President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to prison, is alleged to have had contact with a banker accused of corruption. According to Rivarola, many voters would have voted blank if corruption were the only issue, but Lula gained votes on the issue of democracy.
Many votes were a vote against Bolsonaro rather than a vote for Lula, says Andrés Rivarola.
Another big problem for Lula is Brazil's parliament, where he must manage to assemble a coalition with several other parties, some of which are former opponents of Lula's Workers' Party.
"The main challenge he will face lies in his relationship with Congress. Congress will make it even more difficult to reach agreements," writes Glauco Peres da Silva, a professor of political science at the University of São Paulo, in an email response to TT.
A motley mix of parties and political interests must be brought together, but Lula is a master at handling just such situations, Andrés Rivarola believes.
If there is anyone who can maneuver in a complicated political landscape, it is Lula.
Praised and criticized
Another area where Lula is both praised and criticized is environmental and climate policy. Since taking over from Jair Bolsonaro in 2023, deforestation in the Amazon rainforest has decreased and environmental institutions in the country have been strengthened. But Lula da Silva also supports oil drilling in the country, arguing that it is necessary for the country's welfare. For example, he pushed for state-owned Petrobras to be granted permission to explore for oil in a deep-sea area with sensitive coral reefs and marine ecosystems at the mouth of the Amazon River in the state of Amapá.
This is our country's passport to the future, said Lula da Silva during a visit to the site.
However, he did not vote to allow oil drilling, says Andrés Rivarola.
Here Brazil actually resembles our neighbor Norway, which speaks warmly about climate policy and electric cars but which we all know lives on its oil.
Like Norway, Brazil exports much of its oil. Another similarity between the countries is that domestic electricity production is dominated by hydroelectric power.
What do you think?