Today's inflation outcome confirms economists' view that inflation in Sweden is on the decline.
It's a sharp decline. If you look at the details, it's quite broad-based, there was a bit of a decline in quite a few things. In broad terms, it looks pretty good, says SEB's chief economist Jens Magnusson.
Package tours fell
Among the surprises in today's inflation outcome were package holidays, which fell 18.2 percent month-on-month. Accommodation also became cheaper, falling 3.3 percent.
"You can imagine that there are some temporary effects between the autumn holidays and Christmas," says Susanne Spector.
Food prices, however, rose and were pressured up by, among other things, high raw material prices.
Next year, food VAT will contribute to lower food prices, but until then there will still be some cost pressure on the food side, says Susanne Spector.
Both economists expect lower inflation next year.
I think the picture looks quite bright for Swedish inflation going forward, with good chances of reaching the targets next year, says Jens Magnusson.
The Riksbank raises
He expects the Riksbank to keep the policy rate unchanged until 2027. Danske Bank's chief economist Susanne Spector, however, expects the Riksbank to raise the interest rate at the end of next year.
We expect inflation to be below target because reduced food VAT contributes to clearly lower prices. However, we see underlying inflationary pressure, not least because wages are increasing faster than during the low inflation years, and towards the end of next year we therefore see an interest rate increase from the Riksbank, says Susanne Spector.
Inflation as measured by the CPIF fell to 2.3 percent in November from 3.1 percent in October, according to more definitive figures from Statistics Sweden (SCB). The pure inflation measure (CPI), including interest rate changes, fell to 0.3 percent, from 0.9 percent in price increases in October.
