Russia's ties to states currently undergoing upheaval have not provided any security guarantees. When those countries have encountered monumental difficulties, Moscow has refrained from coming to their aid.
But the great power's actions - or rather the lack of action - could damage its reputation as a reliable partner and ally, parts of the Russian elite fear. Not acting when friends are in crisis is seen by some as undermining Moscow's ideas of a "multipolar world," a source close to the Russian government told the independent Russian Meduza.
In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro has been captured by the US, in Syria, former dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown just over a year ago, and in Iran, widespread protests have been met with violent resistance from the Islamic regime. None of this has led to major Russian action.
Loose collaboration
Russia has been a key arms supplier to Venezuela for decades, but when the United States recently bombed the capital Caracas and captured Maduro, Russia did not come to the rescue. Russia prioritizes relations with the United States over those with Venezuela, a Kremlin insider told Bloomberg. The capture of Maduro is unpleasant for Russia, but not a disaster, the source said.
The countries that have joined the Russian sphere are politically very different from each other, points out Martin Kragh, deputy director of the Center for East European Studies at UI.
It's not like during the Cold War when there was a bloc of communist states. What these countries have in common is authoritarian rule and also an anti-Western foreign policy orientation. That has been enough for them to have an exchange with each other.
The purpose and design of relationships also vary, he says.
"The cooperation Russia has had with a country like Venezuela is quite loose. Belonging to the same political constellation has been the main message, rather than any particularly deep economic or military cooperation, although there were such elements as well," he says.
Al-Assad in Moscow
For Syria and Iran, cooperation with Russia has been more concrete. In Syria, Russia has a major interest through its two military bases in the country.
But even when the country's hardline dictator Bashar al-Assad was forced from power just over a year ago, his good relationship with Putin was not much help - except for al-Assad personally, when he was able to take refuge in Moscow.
Iran has been very important to Russia, especially in 2022 and 2023 when the country delivered Shahed drones that have been used in the war in Ukraine - but also through cooperation in the nuclear field and help to circumvent international sanctions against Russia.
But even with regard to Iran, Russia is not expected to help if the situation worsens in the country, since the war in Ukraine is the top priority, the source told Bloomberg.
Not military
Russia has, according to Iranian state media, supplied Tehran with weapons at a time when widespread protests are shaking the country. The United States has threatened to intervene if protesters are killed, but if the protests were to lead to the United States actually intervening and bombing Iran - as some analysts believe - it is unlikely that Russia will intervene, according to Kragh. The cooperation does not extend that far.
"Russia will not be able to respond militarily," he says.
However, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is planning to flee to Russia if his forces fail to quell the protests, an Israeli intelligence source told The Sunday Times. The plan is said to be based on Bashar al-Assad's flight from Damascus to Moscow.
Iran's top brass has begun to smuggle money out of the country as a preventive measure, the US Treasury Secretary stated in a recent interview with Newsmax.
China most important
But even if the difficulties of the friendly countries are a loss of prestige for Russia, they do not affect Putin's personal position of power, according to Martin Kragh. However, Russia's relations with those specific countries are probably negatively affected.
Today, Russia's most important partner is China, which is a "completely different kind of colossus" than Iran, Syria and Venezuela, he says.
China's importance to Russia cannot be compared to other countries. That relationship is much more important and there Russia is completely dependent on China in a way that does not exist with other countries at all. It is impossible to compare.
On the night of January 3, the United States carried out an attack on the Venezuelan capital, Caracas. In connection with the attack, in which dozens were killed, the country's leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were captured by special forces.
They were then taken by an amphibious ship to Guantánamo, Cuba, and on to New York, where Maduro is being tried for "narco-terrorism."
Until December 2024, the Syrian state had been ruled with an iron fist by the al-Assad family since the 1970s.
Independent organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have repeatedly reported on al-Assad's brutal rule and the state-run secret police that systematically tortured, imprisoned and killed opponents of the regime.
At the end of 2024, al-Assad's regime was overthrown in a lightning offensive led by the Islamist movement HTS. On December 8, HTS entered the capital Damascus and al-Assad fled to Russia.
Source: Country Guide/UI
The demonstrations in Iran began in late December when shopkeepers took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with skyrocketing costs and falling living standards. Since then, the protests have grown massively and now encompass the entire country.
The dissatisfaction is based on the poor economy with skyrocketing inflation and a currency, the rial, that has collapsed, but the protests have broadened to target the entire regime in Tehran.
The regime has responded to the protests with violence and shutdowns of telephone and internet services. Thousands of protesters have been killed and arrested.
