The Liberals have seen an increase of 1.4 percentage points since last month, but their 3.3 per cent still leaves them 0.7 percentage points short of the parliamentary threshold. According to the poll, all other parties appear set to clear the threshold by a comfortable margin ahead of the election on 13 September.
Sweden’s proportional electoral system, which differs from majoritarian voting in single-member constituencies such as those in the US and England, offers parties two routes into parliament:
- The national threshold: Securing at least 4 per cent of the total aggregated national vote.
- The constituency exception: Securing at least 12 per cent of the vote in a specific constituency, which allows for the allocation of fixed seats from that particular area.
A tight race between the blocs
Whether or not the Liberals remain in parliament could become a decisive factor in the choice of a future government, as the race is extremely close between the two blocs. According to the latest Novus poll, support is divided as follows:
- The left bloc (S, V, MP, C): 50.3 per cent of the vote. A functioning government base here requires the Left Party and the Centre Party to reach an agreement, as the Centre Party does not want to sit in the same government as the Left Party.
- The right bloc / the Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L): 47.7 per cent of the vote. This figure is contingent on the Liberals clearing the 4 per cent threshold.
With just one week left, much remains unclear. It is quite open which bloc and party constellation will be given the opportunity to form a government.
Novus
