The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, published a post on X late Friday in which he indirectly threatens to close the Bab el-Mandeb - a strait that is a waterway for the world's freight traffic, mainly between Asia and Europe.
Before 2024, when the first round of disruptions linked to the Gaza War began, around 50 percent of China's exports to the EU went via the strait, says Alexander Atarodi.
“Must be taken seriously”
If the strait were closed, transport routes would be affected and prices would be indirectly affected, which would lead to inflation, he says.
Europe, China and Asia trade heavily, so just a small fractional increase in prices could mean higher inflation throughout Europe.
So far, Iran's statement only implies a hint of a threat, but according to Atarodi, it is a threat that must be taken seriously.
Iran has shown that it has the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz. This has given Iran a strategic advantage, and a changed security policy posture where it has considered how to further put pressure on the world economy and the West.
The influence of the Houthi movement
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have been involved in the Iran-Israel conflict since the end of March, after sending several missiles and drones against Israel.
Last March, the US carried out a series of airstrikes on Houthi targets, dealing a severe blow to the rebels' military capabilities. But with the recent attacks on Israel, the Houthis have shown they have the capability, Atarodi says.
Even if you don't have the same capacity to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as Iran has been able to do with the Strait of Hormuz, it is enough to scare trade flows, ships and companies.
