Trio takes over after Khamenei as cracks form in the regime

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Trio takes over after Khamenei as cracks form in the regime
Photo: Angelina Katsanis/AP/TT

The president and the two officials, who work within the country's judiciary, will, according to state Iranian television, oversee the transition of power.

It will begin on Sunday and an interim government will soon take shape, according to a security service official.

Iranian media confirmed overnight that the country's supreme leader Ali Khamenei is dead. It is a scenario Iran has "prepared" for and considered "all scenarios," according to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

“Spectacular setback”

This is a spectacular success for the US and Israel, and an equally spectacular setback for Iran, says Anders Persson, associate professor of political science and researcher at Linnaeus University.

No matter how well the regime prepares, the death of the supreme leader will create cracks in the regime, according to Persson.

This could lead to conflicts over who will take over. Even if the next leader is formally chosen by a council, Iran is a dictatorship where a mullah or similar could carry out a palace coup. It could also be a military coup where the Revolutionary Guard takes over or maneuvers its way to power.

The scenarios would involve something different from the regime change that US President Donald Trump envisions. Rather, a transformation in which the regime remains but changes its character.

"Chaos and misery"

Trump urges the Iranian people to overthrow the theocracy and seize power.

Anders Persson believes that it is not impossible that it could succeed. Iran has a well-educated population that is significantly more secular and liberal than the regime. Women are involved in society and the people have rebelled many times before.

It is often said that Iran is one of the countries in the Middle East that has the best conditions for a democratic transition.

On the other hand, the US's failures in Afghanistan and Iraq and the immense difficulties of nation-building haunt us.

Iran is much larger than Iraq and Afghanistan, and has a much larger population. These are complicating factors. The risk is that there will be a long period of chaos and misery. One can also imagine a scenario where there will be a refugee crisis - at a stage where there is minimal support for receiving refugees or providing refugee assistance. Iran faces an enormously uncertain future.

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By TT News AgencyEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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