In January, inflation, the annual rate of price increase measured by the CPIF, was 2.0 percent. Economists had expected inflation of 1.8 percent.
Danske Bank estimates that inflation will remain low despite an unpredictable global situation.
With the energy prices we see today and the market's best assessment of how energy prices will develop going forward, we will still have low inflation this year, says Susanne Spector.
Difficult to assess
Admittedly, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would not only affect energy prices, but we are not there yet, says Spector.
Geopolitics is difficult to assess.
According to the pure inflation measure, the CPI, the annual rate of price increase was unchanged in February at 0.5 percent. Underlying inflation, excluding energy prices, fell to 1.4 percent, down from 1.7 percent in January.
"The inflation rate according to the quick CPI was unchanged in February. This was mainly due to food prices increasing more slowly than before and housing costs starting to rise after a period of lower costs," says Mikael Nordin, price statistician at Statistics Sweden, in a press release.
“Great uncertainty”
According to Susanne Spector, Thursday's inflation figure is still reassuring for the Swedish Central Bank. The bank's assessment is that a possible interest rate cut can only take place later in 2026.
Inflation is close to target today, and uncertainty is high. Our best assessment is that the Swedish Central Bank will keep the interest rate unchanged until the end of this year.
