Inflation falls unexpectedly much

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Inflation falls unexpectedly much
Photo: Anders Humlebo/TT

Inflation according to the CPIF measure fell to 2.3 percent in November, according to preliminary figures from Statistics Sweden. It's falling significantly, now we have low inflation in sight, says Länsförsäkringar's chief economist Alexandra Stråberg.

It was a larger decline than expected. Analysts had on average expected CPIF inflation to fall to 2.5 percent, from 3.1 percent in October.

Given how many surprises we have had on the upside this year, it is particularly welcome that inflation came in lower than expected today, says Danske Bank's Chief Economist Susanne Spector.

In the CPIF measure, the effects of mortgage interest rates have been removed, and it is this measure that the Riksbank bases its inflation target of 2 percent on.

This shows that the Riksbank was right when it lowered in September for preventive purposes, says Alexandra Stråberg.

Even excluding energy prices, there was an unexpectedly large decline in inflation, to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent in October. Analysts had on average expected a decline to 2.6 percent.

There is broader downward price pressure, says Stråberg.

But she believes that no further cuts are expected, despite the unexpectedly low inflation.

The threshold for action is quite high, says Stråberg.

Danske Bank's chief economist Susanne Spector says that the Riksbank has signaled that the interest rate will remain at current levels for the foreseeable future, but that October's high outcome created some concern.

Today's figure confirms that the Riksbank can maintain its current course. The economy looks better and inflation comes down, then the Riksbank can continue on its current path.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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