If independent opinion polls are correct, Hungary is heading towards an election victory for the opposition Tisza party in the parliamentary elections on April 12.
In that case, out with Prime Minister Orbán and his ruling party Fidesz - after 16 years in power - and in with 45-year-old Magyar instead.
This is welcomed, not least in Ukraine, which expects to finally avoid Orbán's blocking of the EU's promised emergency loan of more than 900 billion Swedish kronor.
Yes. He (Magyar) is a little more flexible, so we expect that, a Ukrainian government adviser tells the news site Politico Europe.
Magyar has promised to make Hungary a “reliable partner” for the EU and NATO and to fight corruption.
Raised in Fidesz
Anyone expecting a complete political turnaround will be disappointed, however. Magyar left the ruling Fidesz party as late as 2024.
We must not forget that Magyar was politically raised in Fidesz and has spent his entire adult life - until two years ago - in Fidesz, notes Eric Maurice from the think tank EPC at an event in Brussels.
Budapest's Green Mayor Gergely Karácsony points out that Tisza in many ways shares Fidesz's views.
They kept quiet about the ban on a pride parade in Budapest, do not support EU membership for Ukraine, and vote like Fidesz on important issues about Ukraine in the European Parliament, Karácsony told the Austrian newspaper Kurier, according to the APA news agency.
Orbán’s tight control over Hungarian media has helped make the country’s residents some of the most critical of Ukraine in the EU. In a recent independent poll, 64 percent of respondents said they had a negative view of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy - almost as many as those who dislike Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Euro and Eppo
Magyar's election program includes, among other things, fulfilling the criteria for adopting the euro as a currency by 2035 and joining Hungary to the EU's prosecutorial cooperation, the EPPO.
It would be a big step for anti-corruption work in Hungary, says Eric Maurice.
One of Magyar's first goals will be to try to get the European Commission to pay out multi-billion-euro aid to Hungary, which has been frozen due to suspicions of corruption and misuse of EU funds. His proposed new energy minister, István Kapitány, will be tasked with breaking the need for energy from Russia.
However, the country's opposition to the EU's asylum and migration pact is likely to continue. And so will much of the skepticism towards Ukraine.
He (Magyar) is not saying that he will completely break with all Fidesz positions. The election program clearly states that he is against accelerated integration of Ukraine into the EU. He will continue the current non-support, notes Maurice.
The name Orbán will also live on in the government, in the form of the intended new Minister of Foreign Affairs Anita Orbán - who is not related to Viktor, however.
She also has a long background within Fidesz, including as a top official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2010 to 2015.
Fidesz is fighting back
Magyar and Tisza dream of winning so big that they can implement comprehensive changes to how Hungary works.
However, Budapest Mayor Karácsony warns that Viktor Orbán and the heads of government agencies, judges and others appointed under his rule will fight back hard, even if they lose.
He will claim that Brussels has staged a coup, and will keep the country in a civil war-like situation, for example through Fidesz-appointed members of institutions that cannot be replaced by a new government, Gergely Karácsony told Kurier.
Facts: Peter Magyar
Péter Magyar (born 1981) is the leader of the Hungarian conservative opposition party Tisza, which was founded as recently as 2020.
From 2006 to 2024, Magyar was active in the governing Fidesz party and worked, among other things, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hungary's EU representation in Brussels and in the Prime Minister's Office.
In February 2024, he left the party after publishing a recording that established how involved then-President Katalin Novák and former Justice Minister Judit Varga – Magyar's ex-wife – had been in the pardoning of a convicted pedophile.
The scandal increased support for the opposition, with Tisza receiving almost 30 percent of the vote and 7 of Hungary's 21 seats in the 2024 EU elections.
Hungary is located in Central Europe, bordered by Austria and Slovenia to the west, Slovakia to the north, Croatia, Serbia and Romania to the south, and Ukraine to the east. The country is slightly larger than Götaland and has a population of just over 9.5 million.
Hungary became an independent kingdom in the 11th century and later formed a dual monarchy with Austria until the end of World War I. The country participated in World War II on the German side and then ended up on the Soviet side of the Iron Curtain.
After the fall of communism in 1989, Hungary became a member of NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004.
The president since 2024 is Tamás Sulyok (born 1956), although all practical political power lies with the government and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (born 1963), who has ruled since 2010.
