Will Iceland finally join the EU? In any case, there is much to suggest that the negotiations, which were suspended by a Eurosceptic government in 2013, could soon resume. In a poll by the public service broadcaster Rúv in June, just over 53 percent of voters supported renewed talks. However, in a new poll in the week before last, the yes side's lead had shrunk.
If Iceland votes yes tomorrow, a second referendum on the membership agreement will be required, but the negotiations themselves are expected to go quickly - probably a maximum of two years - as Iceland already meets many requirements. However, fisheries and agricultural policy are expected to be sensitive parts of the process.
Iceland's actions are causing concern in Norway. If Iceland becomes a member of the EU, Norway and Liechtenstein will be left alone in the European Economic Area (EEA), the agreement that gives the countries access to the EU's internal market.
Influenced by Trump
It could weaken Norway - and force the country to reconsider its own position outside the union.
It will undoubtedly affect the EEA agreement if Iceland joins the EU. (...) It will affect the dynamics of the EFTA institutions (which also include Switzerland), says EU expert and lawyer Per Christiansen to the Norwegian Nettavisen .
The vote in Iceland has been driven by the changing security situation, rising inflation, and Donald Trump's tariff threats and statements about Greenland - all problems that Norway also faces.
Politicians on both sides of the Norwegian political spectrum are saying that Norway's exclusion from the EU is becoming increasingly costly. Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (Labour Party) has described the EEA as "increasingly inadequate" and warned that Norway must prepare for an Icelandic exit from the EEA.
The gap between EU membership and EEA accession is becoming increasingly clear, he told Dagens Næringsliv in May.
The people are skeptical
The Christian Democratic Party's Kjell Magne Bondevik, a former prime minister, has proposed a Norwegian referendum in the style of Iceland's. The Green Party's Arild Hermstad and the Conservative Party's Ine Eriksen Søreide have also called for a new Norwegian EU debate. If Iceland joins the EU, there will be nothing left of the EEA, Søreide argued earlier in August:
I do not believe that the EEA agreement will survive in the long term.
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, however, has so far been dismissive - just like a majority of Norwegians. Polls show that the gap between the yes and no sides in traditionally EU-skeptical Norway is narrowing, but the no side is still leading.
In the Althingi poll earlier in August, 49 percent said no to Norwegian EU membership, while 37 percent said yes.
The EEA Agreement was concluded in 1992 between seven then EFTA countries, including Sweden, and twelve then EC countries. It formally entered into force on 1 January 1994. Sweden withdrew from the cooperation in connection with its accession to the EU in 1995.
Today, only Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein remain in the EEA (European Economic Area). The EFTA (European Free Trade Association) includes the three as well as Switzerland.
The EEA gives member states access to the EU's internal market and guarantees the free movement of goods, people, services and capital. The countries must comply with EU laws on the internal market, but are not allowed to vote on EU laws.
The cooperation does not apply to the EU's agricultural and fisheries policies, two issues that are important in both Iceland and Norway.
