In the final moments, President Donald Trump is trying to persuade American voters, shuttling between states seen as key to the outcome. Suddenly, Trump and the Republicans risk going from holding majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to losing control of both chambers to the Democrats.
This is what is usually called a “blue wave”, and it is described as significantly limiting Trump’s power.
However, experts TT spoke to say the initial impact on the global economy may not be particularly large.
Could get even worse
There is also always a risk that Trump will choose to fight back if he loses an election.
There are those who believe that it could get even worse, that Trump will be angry if he loses both chambers, feel cornered with only two years left and want to leave a historical legacy, says Jens Magnusson.
One scenario that has been put forward is that this could lead to even more statements about tariffs, trade wars and military threats, which have been a recurring feature of Trump’s presidency.
I absolutely believe that this line could continue in the future. We will see tariffs used as a popular weapon whenever he gets angry or upset with a world leader or a country, says Jens Magnusson.
Difficult to interpret
Ola Olsson, professor of economics at the School of Economics, University of Gothenburg, points out how difficult it is to interpret Trump and how unpredictable he has been:
I have given up trying to predict what he will do. There is no logic, but when it comes to economic policy, I am not so sure that it will mean such a big change straight away. First of all, the new Congress will not be in place until after the New Year, and secondly, I do not know whether the Democrats have a very different economic agenda, he tells TT.
Iran war a contributing factor
From an economic perspective, the Iran war has contributed significantly to rising energy prices. However, the war is unlikely to be resolved by a possible election result in a couple of days, both Jens Magnusson and Ola Olsson point out:
It is not the case that the Democrats, if they were to win both chambers, could force Donald Trump to immediately make peace in the Middle East and somehow normalize traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and bring down global fuel prices, says Jens Magnusson.
The Democrats do not want to be lenient towards Iran either. That is certainly not their ambition, adds Ola Olsson.
What do you think?