The electricity bill looks set to be an increasingly tough blow for Swedish households and businesses this autumn. An important explanation for this risk is that the price of fossil gas in Europe is hovering at record levels of around 74 euros per megawatt hour, with a high risk of further increases.
Low gas levels
Shutdowns of nuclear power plants are a factor behind the development. But the most important explanation is the supply disruptions resulting from the Iran war, which have led to unusually low gas inventories ahead of the heating season in Europe, according to Christian Holtz, electricity market analyst at Polite Energy.
"It is impossible to avoid the fact that it affects Swedish electricity prices," he tells TT.
This applies particularly to the futures market, where electricity deliveries are purchased in advance.
If you look at the winter contracts, prices have risen by 30–40 percent since last summer, says Holtz.
Press up
The entire commodity market is under extra stress right now. New Iranian attacks on Saudi facilities, Iran's attempts to settle a dispute with Oman over shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and this weekend's American attacks on Iranian ships are worrying the market.
The price of North Sea oil (Brent) rose 10 percent last week and continues to rise to over $99 per barrel, the highest level since July.
Higher oil prices on the world market are creating – together with negative currency effects – upward pressure on gasoline and diesel prices at Swedish gas stations.
High risk
Prices at the pump are currently being dampened by the government's temporary reductions in energy tax and carbon dioxide tax. But they are to be phased out this autumn and already the price of petrol is 18 kronor per litre and the price of diesel is 21.50 kronor per litre.
Goldman Sachs analysts write in a recent analysis that increased attacks on energy shipments in the Middle East could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, according to Bloomberg. This is close to the record level during the Iran war of just over $126 per barrel in April.
They also note that the market is currently increasingly beginning to expect a protracted conflict in the Middle East, which means that the risk of significant price increases is high.
